India’s Pragmatic Pivot Toward China

Harsh V. Pant

Source Link

On July 30, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that he was imposing 25 percent tariffs on goods from India. This trade war escalation comes amid New Delhi’s efforts to improve its economic ties with China as well as accusations that such moves reflect India’s “submission” to Beijing. There have indeed been striking shifts in the triangular dynamic between the United States, China, and India. Trump has given some signals of moving closer to China, prompting New Delhi to find its own balance between Washington and Beijing. But it would be a mistake to see the recent Indian outreach to China as an Indian concession driven by strategic frailty.

Rather, it is a form of tactical accommodation to evolving geopolitical realities. New Delhi’s engagement with Beijing is aimed at achieving concrete economic benefits without compromising core security interests. ndia’s economic ties with China have been frozen since the 2020 border clashes in Galwan and the military standoff that ensued. At that time, India responded to Beijing’s bid to unilaterally change the status quo on the Line of Actual Control (LAC) by declaring that business as usual between the two countries was over. 

More than 300 Chinese apps, including TikTok, were banned, and Chinese telecoms were restricted from the rollout of 5G services in India. Additionally, the government mandated that companies based in nations that shared a land border with India could only invest after obtaining official government permission. In October 2024, however, the two countries decided to defuse the situation, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping met for the first time in five years on the sidelines of that year’s BRICS leaders’ summit. India interpreted the resulting understanding between the two countries as a win. 

The Indian Army secured the ability to patrol key points along the border, and Indian herders were able to resume grazing. By accepting renewed Indian patrol, the Chinese side stepped back from its efforts to impose new facts on ground. Furthermore, after five years, China has again allowed pilgrims from India to resume visiting Mount Kailash and the Mansarovar and Rakshastal lakes. India, in return, has resumed issuing tourist visas to Chinese nationals. Beyond this, media and civil society exchanges are taking place regularly again, and talks are underway to restore direct flights between Indian and Chinese cities.

Donald Trump Issues New Threat to India

Jenna Sundel and Gabe Whisnant

Source Link

Trump wrote on Truth Social: "India is not only buying massive amounts of Russian Oil, they are then, for much of the Oil purchased, selling it on the Open Market for big profits. They don't care how many people in Ukraine are being killed by the Russian War Machine. Because of this, I will be substantially raising the Tariff paid by India to the USA. Thank you for your attention to this matter!!! President DJT"

Last week, Trump imposed a 25 percent tariff on all Indian goods coming into the United States from August 1, as well as an unspecified extra penalty for India's continued purchase of Russian oil amid the war in Ukraine According to United States Census Bureau data from May of this year, India is one of the United States' top trading partners. The nation had a year-to-date deficit of -28.9 billion dollars at the time.

Trump met with India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi in February to discuss multiple topics, including trade and investment. The leaders set a goal for trade entitled "Mission 500," which aims to more than double total bilateral trade to $500 billion by 2030. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi (L) and U.S. President Donald Trump hold a press conference at the White House on February 13, 2025. Associated Press

Following Modi's visit to the U.S. in February, the White House said the U.S. and India would work toward increasing market access and reducing tariff and non-tariff barriers. Products imported into the U.S. from India include pharmaceuticals and electrical components. What People Are Saying President Donald Trump, on Truth Social on Thursday: "I don't care what India does with Russia. They can take their dead economies down together, for all I care. We have done very little business with India, their Tariffs are too high, among the highest in the World."

U.S.-India Relationship Appears to Fray Over Russian Oil Purchases

Miranda Jeyaretnam

Source Link

“India is not only buying massive amounts of Russian oil, they are then, for much of the oil purchased, selling it on the open market for big profits. They don’t care how many people in Ukraine are being killed by the Russian war machine,” Trump said via Truth Social on Monday, referring to Russia’s war with Ukraine. The President warned that he would “substantially” raise the tariff rate on Indian products entering the U.S. as a result. India’s foreign ministry said in a statement that “the targeting of India is unjustified and unreasonable.” The ministry stated that India was “actively encouraged” by the U.S. 

to buy Russian oil, which American officials said at the time was meant to keep Russian oil in the global supply so that oil prices would not surge. He wants a tremendous relationship and has had always a tremendous relationship with India and the Prime Minister [Narendra Modi],” White House deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller said on Fox News over the weekend. “But we need to get real about dealing with the financing of this war.” The Trump Administration has recently shifted from the President’s earlier friendly tone towards Russian President Vladimir Putin. 

Trump, who said repeatedly during his presidential campaign that he would end the war “in 24 hours,” has apparently grown fed up with Putin, issuing sharp criticisms of the Russian President as well as of former Russian President Dmitri Medvedev. Last month, Trump announced that the U.S. would continue to supply Ukraine militarily (after earlier announcing a pause), and he threatened tariffs and other measures on Russia if it does not reach a peace deal with Ukraine by Aug. 8. But Trump is also shifting his approach toward India, which has long served as a regional buffer against China and whose leader has had a close relationship with Trump. 

“I don’t care what India does with Russia.They can take their dead economies down together, for all I care,” Trump posted on Truth Social on July 31.India portrays itself as being one of our closest friends in the world, but they don’t accept our products, they impose massive tariffs on us, … and of course we see again the purchasing of [Russian] oil.” Miller said on Fox News, adding that “all options are on the table” for Trump to end the Russia-Ukraine war.

India’s ties to Russia

Toward a Mutually Beneficial Partnership with India to Improve U.S. Strategy in the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command

Source Link

“The distribution of power across the world is changing, creating new threats.”1 From a U.S. national perspective, there has been a recognized change in the strategic environment with the weakening of the post-World War II world order.2 The two reasons for this shift that stand out the most are a rising China and a disruptive Russia. To address this change, it would be prudent to form alliances and partnerships with other democratic and like-minded nations, aiming to tilt the competitive balance and rebalance the distribution of power.3 To achieve this, it is crucial to avoid repeating past mistakes, such as those made in Iraq and Afghanistan.

where the United States created alliances based on pressure instead of on the willingness of the parties involved.4 While these changes present new threats, they also present opportunities, including the possibility of forming an enduring and equitable partnership between India and the United States. This window of geopolitical opportunity exists because both nations currently seek a common solution to contain China’s influence. For India, this common interest is primarily regional, while for the United States, China is considered a pacing threat and the “most consequential strategic competitor” at the global level.5 These interests intersect in the U.S. 

Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM) region, providing an opportunity for a mutually beneficial partnership. Despite the obstacles that have existed for decades, the perceived threat from China now makes such a partnership seem more attainable than at any point in recent history. This potential partnership between India and the United States could be seen as a win-win for both nations. Collective action, not just pontification, is required to address the changing distribution of power worldwide. The 2022 National Security Strategy (NSS), signed by President Joseph Biden.

proclaims, “We must proactively shape the international order in line with our interests and values.”6 The NSS goes on to explain how the Nation’s most important strategic assets are alliances and partnerships worldwide.One strategy developed by the Department of Defense that will be used for proactive shaping is integrated deterrence.7 “Deterrence remains an essential pillar of U.S. defense posture.”8 The concept of integrated deterrence means it is integrated across domains, across the whole of government, and across allies and partners.

People's war principle drives PLA development

Source Link

This year marks the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Chinese People's War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression (1931-45) and the World Anti-Fascist War. The year also marks the final phase of the journey toward achieving the centenary goals of the People's Liberation Army in 2027, making it necessary to stay on track, harness the core strengths of a "people's war" and mobilize the people for just causes. Marxism holds that what is called history is nothing but the creation of man by human labor. In other words, people are the decisive force behind progress. 

The theory of people's war is rooted in this principle, and emphasizes that people, not weapons, ultimately determine the outcome of war.The legacy of people's war has been evolving over the past 80 years. In today's era of multi-domain competition, victory depends on maintaining a strong bond with the people, adapting to technological and tactical changes, and mobilizing the people. During the Chinese People's War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression, the Communist Party of China mobilized the people, established base areas behind enemy lines.

and gained support from a cross-section of society. By organizing guerrilla forces and militias, the Party developed a combat system integrating trained troops, armed civilians and local forces to counter the enemy. The Party-led people's war is the foundation of the PLA's combat effectiveness and its key strategic advantage. At its core lies the truth that people are the real source of military strength. Guided by this principle, the people's armed forces have, from their modest beginnings, transformed into a major military force. 

As Chairman Mao Zedong emphasized in On Protracted War, mobilizing the people compensates for inferior equipment and brings victory despite adverse conditions.On the open plains of North China, where natural cover was limited, the Party-led troops and civilians built hidden tunnels, planted landmines, and used "sparrow warfare" (hit-and-run) tactics to immobilize the Japanese forces, thwarting the enemy's "mopping-up" operations. The campaign demonstrated the creativity and decisive role of the people in the war.

Beyond the Second Island Chain: It’s Time to Mitigate Strategic Risk in Oceania

George Fust

Source Link

The lens of US-China strategic competition is most typically focused on geographic areas of friction like the South China Sea and potential flashpoints like Taiwan, locations inside the first island chain. Occasionally, it zooms out to the second island chain. Too rarely, however, does the aperture widen even further to the Pacific Islands. But these islands are not a backwater. They are the front line. Oceania spans more than three hundred thousand square miles and sits astride some of the world’s most important sea lanes and beneath vital air corridors.

From the second through the third island chains, the region plays a pivotal role in Indo-Pacific security and would certainly do so in any future military contingency involving China. Though these island nations are often small and remote, their strategic value is undeniable. Geography remains destiny, and in the case of Oceania, whoever controls access to the region holds a powerful advantage. China understands this. The United States must act accordingly and urgently.

China has spent the last two decades executing a comprehensive strategy of influence across Oceania. This campaign reflects a model of unrestricted warfare: economic enticement, diplomatic charm offensives, elite capture, media manipulation, and the deployment of state-owned enterprises that serve both commercial and military functions. Beijing-backed companies now operate critical infrastructure including ports, airports, undersea cables, and telecommunications networks across the region. In many cases, these services are monopolistic by necessity; most Pacific island countries are too small to support multiple competitors. 

This creates single points of failure and vulnerability. Chinese infrastructure is not just dual-use in theory. In a future conflict, these assets will support early warning operations or integrate into a kill chain for the People’s Liberation Army targeting US and allied forces. Even in peacetime, their presence enables surveillance, coercion, and disinformation, all of which align with Beijing’s larger effort to reshape the regional order and cast the United States as an unreliable or even malign actor. Mitigating strategic risk in Oceania requires a nuanced understanding of several interlocking dynamics. 

Hiroshima and the End We Refuse to Imagine

Jason Farago

Source Link

It comes two hours into “Drive My Car,” Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s Oscar-winning 2021 masterpiece of bereavement and artistic inspiration, when a troupe of actors steps outside the theater to rehearse in the fresh air. It is autumn. Leaves crunch beneath the feet of two actresses as they play one of the tenderest scenes of “Uncle Vanya.” They’d been struggling, up to now, as they recited Chekhov’s lines about sorrow and stagnation: lives not lived, dreams squelched and dreams maintained. But here in the park something clicks. We must live. The show must go on.

It’s never made explicit why this outdoor rehearsal unlocks the core of Chekhov — how this park, for these actors, opens a whole universe of grief and endurance. For a Japanese audience, at least, there was no need.Beginning in 1958, Kikuji Kawada photographed Hiroshima, capturing images of its A-Bomb Dome and objects reflecting the American postwar occupation. The park is the Hiroshima Peace Memorial Park, designed in 1954 by the great modernist architect Kenzo Tange. On Aug. 6, 1945 — 80 years ago this week — a new kind of bomb detonated, almost silently, some 1,900 feet overhead. 

The scene from “Drive My Car” came back to me when I stood, in a pouring rain, on the spot where it was filmed. Anyone standing there in 1945 was killed immediately; then came the fires, and the fallout. It started raining in the first days after Aug. 6 as well: viscous black drops, heavy with soot and debris. The survivors drank it desperately in the ruins of Hiroshima. The raindrops were radioactive. A scientific event,” wrote the painter Wassily Kandinsky in 1913, “removed one of the most important obstacles from my path. This was the further division of the atom. 

The collapse of the atom was equated, in my soul, with the collapse of the whole world.” At the start of the last century, after Ernest Rutherford, Pierre and Marie Curie, and Albert Einstein began to unravel the mysteries of nuclear physics, a periodic table of artists, authors and philosophers grew fixated on this new science’s cultural repercussions. Suddenly, the permanence of matter (the permanence of history, perhaps) appeared like an industrial relic. Objects that seemed stable actually vibrated with energy. Nuclear physics was confirming a suspicion, one at the core of modern art and literature, that the things we see are less solid than they look.

Testing the Waters: Modernization of People’s Liberation Army

Gaurav Sen 

Source Link

Beginning in 2015, China launched broad military reforms under President Xi to institutionalize China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) for a common future. As a result of these reforms, the Strategic Support Force (SSF, or PLASSF) was established, a new command-and-control structure was established, regional commands were replaced with a theater command system, the army’s strength and influence were reduced, cadre training and education were improved, and other changes were made. These modifications, which have a solid historical foundation, are the basis of the PLA’s fighting prowess. 

Despite repeated efforts, the PLA is having trouble integrating jointness into the military. According to Chairman Xi, the modernisation of the PLA should be finished by 2035, and by 2049, it should be a “world-class force”. The foundation of these initiatives is jointness. The term jointness describes the process of combining all the military services into a single, cohesive organization that is stronger than the sum of its components. Within this framework, each service can highlight their strengths while minimizing their limitations through effective cooperation. But encouraging jointness involves several difficult tasks, such as creating a shared culture. 

getting past narrow service interests, and coordinating many operational initiatives. China still has a long way to go before realizing its goals. Chinese strategist criticizes technology problems, interservice rivalries, and incompetent operational commanders as inhibitors to achieving jointness throughout the PLA. The authors note that advancing a joint force continues to face technical difficulties. Assuring that the services’ technology is consistent will promote interoperability and is one of the most crucial elements in making sure they can coexist. Along with that, scholars claim that for the PLA to fulfil its jointness objectives, there needs to be a “single information technology system standard”. 

Mid-level operational commanders, according to Chinese analysts, are not prepared for modern combat. The phrase “Five Incapables” perfectly expresses this concern. According to the official Chinese slogan, officer cadres are incapable of accurately assessing fighting situations, comprehending the goals of the top authority, making operational judgements, sending troops, or handling certain situations. This theme has been reinforced by Xi personally, who feels the PLA must solve this issue. In fact, since 2015, it has been the PLA’s most often spoken catchphrase. 

China Wants Nuclear Weapons To Strike Fear Into America

Ryan Chan

Source Link

China—which possesses the world's third-largest nuclear arsenal—is using its rapid nuclear development to deter adversaries, namely the United States and its Asian allies, and gain a strategic advantage without resorting to war, a think tank reported on Wednesday. China has consistently adhered to a nuclear strategy of self-defense, always maintaining its nuclear forces at the minimum level required for national security, and does not engage in an arms race," China's Embassy in Washington, D.C., said in a statement to Newsweek.

Estimated figures from the U.S. Defense Department and the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute show that China has built a nuclear stockpile of at least 600 warheads—an increase of 100 in one year. While the East Asian power is set to possess more than 1,000 warheads by 2030, this would still place Beijing far behind Moscow and Washington. As part of China's ongoing military modernization, President Xi Jinping has ordered the acceleration of strategic deterrence force development. 

Beijing has also said it was "forced" to join the exclusive nuclear club—which currently includes nine nations—in response to nuclear threats, to end nuclear monopoly and to prevent a nuclear war. In a report titled "Implications of Chinese Nuclear Weapons Modernization for the United States and Regional Allies," the Hudson Institute in Washington, D.C., said China's rapid nuclear modernization seeks to create political and psychological effects that lead to "enormously important strategic and military effects" rather than to win a nuclear exchange.

The authors—John Lee, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, and Lavina Lee, a senior lecturer in the Department of Security Studies and Criminology at Macquarie University in Australia—argued that these effects were fully aligned with what they described as China's "evolving notions" of strategic stability, strategic deterrence and strategic capabilities. According to the report, Beijing views strategic stability as a condition that supports the advancement of China's geopolitical and development objectives.

Do the Suwayda Clashes in Syria Signal Future Clashes Between the Kurds and the New Syrian Regime?

Source Link

The Syrian government’s attempted offensive on Suwayda appears to have been aimed at taking advantage of skirmishes between Bedouin tribal militias and Druze factions to dismantle local autonomy under the pretense of halting intercommunal violence. The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) views the Suwayda assault as a model the central regime may employ against its own autonomous region in northeast Syria. These concerns are exacerbated by the collapse of integration talks between the SDF and the Syrian Interim Government in July.

Experts warn that unless Damascus abandons its agenda of centralization, Syria risks renewed conflict between the state and its autonomous regions. In particular, the Kurds are unlikely to reintegrate into the new Syrian army unless meaningful guarantees of their autonomy and security within the new state are provided. On July 12, intense clashes broke out between Druze and Bedouin armed groups in Suwayda, Syria. This occurred after an informal Bedouin checkpoint kidnapped a Druze vegetable truck driver, resulting in a series of escalating kidnappings and killings between the two groups (Alhurra, July 16). 

Suwayda is a province in southwestern Syria that contains significant Druze, Christian, and Sunni Arab populations. The main players in the region adopted a position of neutrality during the Syrian Civil War, maintaining limited autonomy from Damascus while becoming a refuge for those fleeing the al-Assad regime, including individuals fleeing conscription (Etana, February 22, 2024). In April 2023, anti-regime protests erupted in Suwayda; by December, the Druze joined the fight against the al-Assad regime, opening up another front in the final days of the war from the south (Anadolu Ajansı, August 17, 2024; CNN, December 6, 2024). 

Among the leaders of Suwayda’s Druze is Hikmat al-Hijri—a former al-Assad supporter who came to endorse the new regime when Suwayda’s autonomy was put in danger. Now, the Druze fear that the new Syrian government will encroach on their autonomy. This is an especially poignant threat in light of the latter’s Islamism and failure to protect minorities, most notably the Alawites, more than 1000 of whom were killed in March. This Substack is reader-supported. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. 

Russia’s Record-Breaking Drone Attacks on Ukraine May Have a Dark Secret

Jack Buckby

Source Link

Key Points and Summary – Russia’s drone and missile attacks on Ukraine escalated to record levels in July, reflecting a rapidly expanding domestic production capacity. This surge, built on Iranian Shahed technology, aims to achieve an unprecedented ability to launch thousands of drones at once. However, a recent investigation by an exiled Russian media outlet has made a disturbing claim: this growing industry is allegedly being powered in part by child labor.

Is Russia’s Drone Attack Uptick Powered By Child Labor?

As Russian forces utilize summer’s advantageous weather conditions with ground assaults and major territorial advances, its aerial campaigns are escalating, too. Data published by the Ukrainian air force suggests a record 6,443 drones and missiles were launched at Ukraine through July. The data shows a roughly 13% increase in drone and missile strikes over June, when 5,438 drones and 239 missiles were launched at targets in Ukraine. An ABC News analysis of the data reported an average rate of 201 drone attacks per day, compared to 181 last month.

The dramatic uptick in attacks reflects Moscow’s rapidly expanding drone production capacity. Russian state media has openly highlighted the scale of domestic manufacturing efforts, and in one recent broadcast, Zvezda TV showcased a drone assembly facility in Alabuga, Tatarstan, where workers were seen constructing Geran drones. According to a German assessment of the conflict, Russia is looking to achieve unprecedented drone attack capacities, with an aim to launch as many as 2,000 drones at once. Maj. Gen. Christian Freuding.

“The ambition is to have 2,000 drones that can be used simultaneously,” Freuding said. The quality of the drones that were copied from the Iranian predecessor models has improved significantly—we assume that the potency has increased by 50%, they are hardened against electronic warfare defenses and harder to defend against,” he continued. Among the UAVs being manufactured by Russia’s newest facilities is the Geran-2, which is modeled on the Iranian Shahed design. While most of the drone’s components can now be manufactured domestically, Russia still relies on Iranian technology and expertise.

Chinese scientists draw on Ukraine war lessons and propose an upgrade for PLA drones

Source Link

In Ukraine, about nine in 10 Russian drones have been shot down by advanced air defences, according to various estimates. Ukrainian air force data suggested that about 15 per cent of drones had penetrated its defences between April and June – rising from just 5 per cent previously. But a group of Chinese aerospace engineers and defence researchers have now proposed a radical technological enhancement for combat drones that may dramatically increase their ability to survive to nearly 90 per cent. At the heart of the proposal was an innovative concept: fitting compact, side-mounted rocket boosters to small or medium-sized drones so they can perform instantaneous, high-G manoeuvres in the final seconds before a missile impact.

According to the researchers, this “terminal evasion” system allowed drones to perform abrupt, unpredictable course changes that even the most sophisticated missiles could not track or follow. In extensive digital simulations detailed in a paper published in the Chinese defence journal Acta Armamentarii last month, the system saw a huge improvement in survival rates, passing 87 per cent. In many cases, the drones effectively caused missiles to detonate harmlessly in empty space. In modern wars, including the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, combatants have “extensively employed drones for reconnaissance and aerial combat.

wrote the project team led by Bi Wenhao, an associate researcher with the National Key Laboratory of Aircraft Configuration Design in Northwestern Polytechnical University in Xian. Chinese military analysts, after studying the war in Ukraine and other areas, “place higher demands on the evasion capability and survivability of unmanned combat aircraft”, the team wrote. Taiwan seals deal for Ukraine combat-tested drone software to counter Beijing Traditionally, drones are expected to make evasive moves long before the missile hits, but this can end their mission. 

As an alternative, Bi’s team suggested taking evasive action at the last possible moment. The concept hinges on three critical principles, the first is precise timing, which means the anti-drone missile must ignite within a one to two-second window before impact – early enough to alter trajectory, late enough to deny the missile time to correct. The second is directional intelligence: the system must determine whether to climb, dive, or veer laterally based on the missile’s approach vector. The last of the three is thrust: 

30 Breathtaking Wildlife Photos by Mateusz Piesiak That Celebrate Nature’s Spirit

Source Link

Mateusz Piesiak, a renowned wildlife photographer and filmmaker from Poland, invites us into the enchanting world of animals through his breathtaking wildlife photos. From serene lakes to remote forests, Mateusz’s lens reveals not just what nature looks like — but what it feels like. His journey began at a young age, when he preferred the company of swans and birds over playgrounds. Fascinated by avian behavior and curious about animal life, he sharpened his eye long before picking up a camera at the age of 13.

What makes his work stand out is the way he blends artistic vision with scientific observation. With award-winning credentials including the Wildlife Photographer of the Year and the European Wildlife Photographer of the Year, Mateusz brings a level of dedication and skill few can match. His mastery of composition and framing, attention to detail, and ability to wait hours in hides all result in emotionally resonant images that speak volumes about nature’s untamed beauty.

But there’s more — Mateusz is also a multi-talented creator, merging photography with music and painting in immersive presentations that bring wildlife to life. His growing audience of nearly 2 million followers worldwide is a testament to how deeply his images connect with people. In this article, we present 30 of his most inspiring bird and wildlife photos — each a celebration of life in its wildest, purest form. Through these images, we witness not only animals in their natural habitat, but also the artistic soul of a photographer who lives to tell their silent stories.

Ukraine Develops AI to Track Russian Troops Through Social Media

IVAN KHOMENKO

Source Link

The Ukrainian defense innovation center Boryviter is developing an artificial intelligence system designed to passively monitor and analyze Russian-affiliated media and social platforms. According to Militarnyi on July 31, the system—called ODCR Assistant—is currently undergoing testing and is intended to enhance Ukraine’s military intelligence capabilities by automating open-source data collection and filtering relevant information for further analysis. The name ODCR stands for Observation, Discussion, Conclusion, and Recommendation—the four core elements the neural network is designed to detect within unstructured data streams.

“We’ve connected the module to several unclassified data feeds, and the AI is already capable of recognizing key experience-based indicators,” said Pavlo Musiyenko, head of Boryviter’s analytical department. “It processes all incoming publications, filters them, and generates structured observations.” The system currently tracks around 1,000 posts per day from various sources, ranging from niche military blogs to general public channels. Among these are social media accounts of Russian military personnel and technical specialists involved in frontline operations or weapons development.

The AI sorts posts in two phases using a system of “red” and “green” markers—keywords that signal the potential value or irrelevance of a post. If a message contains only “green” markers and lacks “red” ones, it is passed on for deeper analysis. The next phase of development includes training the model to evaluate whether the extracted information is already known and, if necessary, categorize and systematize the new data. However, full automation is not yet feasible, and human analysis remains essential.

“We are still far from fully autonomous analysis and automated reporting,” Musiyenko noted. “Also, since we work exclusively with open sources, there are inherent limitations. Once the system is further refined, it will significantly enhance the capacity of our military experience analysts.” In parallel, Boryviter is working on another AI project aimed at supporting Ukrainian service members. This second language model, built with functionality similar to ChatGPT, 

How the US needs to prepare for a higher-level war, according to an American special ops trainer in Ukraine

Jake Epstein

Source Link

To prepare for the next major conflict, the US military needs to forget nearly everything it has learned from two decades of fighting wars in the Middle East, an American veteran in Ukraine told Business Insider. Scooter, who serves as an instructor with the 4th Ranger Regiment of Ukraine's Special Operations Forces, said Russia's invasion offers lessons for the West about how it can prepare for future combat. The American could only be identified by his call sign for security reasons. The first lesson I would recommend to NATO and the United States is to forget the last lesson they learned," the American said during a video chat from an undisclosed location in central Ukraine. 

A counterinsurgency, like the ones American forces fought in Iraq and Afghanistan, is "nothing like a conventional war" in terms of the intensity of combat and the types of threats. Scooter, a former US Navy sailor who fought Russia for two years alongside other foreign volunteers in Ukraine's International Legion before eventually joining the Ukrainian Special Operations Forces, said threats that soldiers face in this war — rocket fire from helicopters, fighter jet strikes, accurate artillery shelling — are vastly different from the scenes in the Middle East.

"Commanders need to be training their people to deal with a threat, very similar to what we were expecting during the Cold War, with whoever we end up in a war with next," he explained. "They need to be training them for much of the same threat that we would've faced in the 1980s." In a modern war, achieving air superiority through the suppression or destruction of enemy surface-to-air missile systems is critical. In the Middle East campaigns of the past couple of decades, this mission was much less of an issue for US forces, which could operate relatively uncontested in the skies.

Russia failed to achieve air superiority during the early stages of its invasion despite fielding a force of fighter jets and bombers vastly superior to that of Ukraine. This would come back to haunt Moscow, which is locked in a grinding, attritional fight, unable to make significant battlefield gains. Russian fighter aircraft have used highly destructive glide bombs to attack Ukrainian military and civilian targets. Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via AP Advanced air defenses on both sides prevent Russia and Ukraine from operating their aircraft too close to the front line.

How to ensure America is ready for the next war

Source Link

On Thursday, the Senate Appropriations Committee approved our bill that would invest $852 billion in national defense over the next fiscal year by a decisive 26-3 vote. It would restore aid to Ukraine, boost assistance to our European and Pacific allies, and go beyond the president’s budget request (and the funding approved by our counterparts in the House) to modernize the U.S. military and defense industrial base to meet tomorrow’s threats. This bill is an urgently needed step in the right direction.

America’s adversaries — principally China, Russia, Iran and North Korea — are investing heavily to blunt our military advantages, threaten our interests and undermine our influence. They’re collaborating on military technology, providing each other with diplomatic cover, and otherwise facilitating one another’s aggression and hegemonic aspirations. Countering this growing alignment requires strengthening our own alliances and partnerships with smart soft-power investments in global health and humanitarian aid that deny China opportunities to supplant U.S. influence.

This year, the Pentagon has had to meet payrolls, train forces, procure weapons and sustain operations with funds based on estimates made more than a year ago. That’s because, for the first time ever, Congress and the administration funded our military through a continuing resolution at spending levels set in 2023 instead of passing an updated budget. This was a tremendous missed opportunity to make serious, full-year investments in readiness, modernization and industrial capacity, and it has already had enormous consequences.

For example, even after the one-time influx of spending Congress passed last month, the Defense Department has come to us to acknowledge significant shortfalls in critical areas such as shipbuilding and high-demand munitions. The lesson here is obvious: There is no substitute for consistent, full-year appropriations that adequately address the growing requirements of our military. Our effort this year won’t be enough to close the gaps with our adversaries’ sustained investments. Expanding shipyard and munitions capacity, deepening stocks of critical weapons, adopting new technologies.

What's the Cause of the Gaza Crisis—Hamas' Tyranny or Israel's Blockade? Newsweek Contributors Debate

Newsweek Staff

Source Link

The war between Israel and Hamas has led to a humanitarian crisis in the Gaza Strip, where food and medicine are cut off and living conditions are deteriorating. Who is responsible for mass starvation in Gaza? Has Israel broken international law? Is a peaceful, prosperous future possible for Gaza? Newsweek contributors Paul du Quenoy and Faisal Kutty debate: Hamas bears ultimate responsibility for the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. If it sincerely cared about the welfare of the Palestinian people, it would have ended its decades-long genocidal commitment to the destruction of Israel. 

It would have refrained from the October 7, 2023, attack on Israeli civilians, which precipitated the massive destruction that led directly to the current situation. It would have surrendered when its combat operations consistently failed rather than prolong a hopeless guerrilla war backed by holding innocent civilians hostage. The Palestinian people could end their plight tomorrow if they would only zip-tie their radical Islamist leaders and end the "resistance" that has brought them nothing but woe and the sympathy of Western hysterics who sit far away, totally unable to help them.

Mass starvation in Gaza is not a byproduct of war—it is a method of war. While Hamas bears responsibility for war crimes, the root cause of this crisis lies in Israel's decades-long occupation and blockade. Israel controls Gaza's borders, airspace, and access to food, water, and medicine. Over 100 humanitarian organizations, the World Health Organization, and Médecins Sans Frontières have documented "man-made mass starvation," with children dying and civilians shot while seeking food. 

Leading genocide and Holocaust scholars—including Israeli and Jewish experts—have warned that what is unfolding bears the hallmarks of genocide. Former U.S. envoy David Satterfield called Israel's attempt to blame the UN for starvation in Gaza "knowingly false." Israeli leaders now face International Criminal Court (ICC) charges for using starvation as a weapon—a war crime and an act consistent with genocidal intent. This atrocity will only end with a ceasefire, unfettered humanitarian access, and full legal accountability—without exception.

Hundreds of Israeli ex-officials appeal to Trump to help end Gaza war

Source Link

A group of some 600 retired Israeli security officials, including former heads of intelligence agencies, have written to US President Donald Trump to pressure Israel to immediately end the war in Gaza. It is our professional judgement that Hamas no longer poses a strategic threat to Israel," the officials said. Your credibility with the vast majority of Israelis augments your ability to steer Prime Minister [Benjamin] Netanyahu and his government in the right direction: End the war, return the hostages, stop the suffering," they wrote.

Their appeal comes amid reports that Netanyahu is pushing to expand military operations in Gaza as indirect ceasefire talks with Hamas have stalled. Israel launched a devastating war in Gaza following Hamas's attack in southern Israel on 7 October 2023 in which about 1,200 people were killed and 251 taken into Gaza as hostages. More than 60,000 people have been killed as a result of Israel's military campaign in Gaza since then, the Hamas-run health ministry says.

On Monday, the ministry reported that at least 94 people had been killed in Gaza in the past day, including dozens it said had died in Israeli strikes. At least 24 people had been killed while seeking aid, it added. Such reports have become almost daily in recent months but are hard to verify as international journalists, including the BBC, are blocked by Israel from entering Gaza independently. The territory is also experiencing mass deprivation as a result of heavy restrictions imposed by Israel on what is allowed into Gaza. 

The ministry says 180 people, including 93 children, have died from malnutrition since the start of the war. UN-backed agencies have said the "worst-case scenario of famine is currently playing out" in Gaza. The latest intervention by the top former Israeli officials came after videos of two emaciated Israeli hostages were released by Hamas and Islamic Jihad militants. The videos were widely condemned by Israeli and Western leaders. After the videos were released, Netanyahu spoke with the two hostage families.

The Next Battlefield: Securing America’s Digital Infrastructure

Mira Ricarde

Source Link

In my years at senior levels of government and industry, I have often witnessed how technology is increasingly shaping global power. When I served as Deputy National Security Advisor, ensuring that the United States retained domestic control over the invisible yet indispensable networks that power our phones, businesses, and military was a top priority. As such, it does not surprise me that the reported recent debate inside the Department of Justice’s decision over whether to settle and permit Hewlett Packard Enterprises (HPE) to acquire Juniper Networks is such a hot-button national news item today. 

The disposition of this merger and related decisions may affect whether America will lead the digital age—or cede it to China. The stakes could not be higher. China’s Huawei controls 30 percent of the global market for network equipment, leveraging not only Beijing’s subsidies but also its aggressive initiatives to embed its 5G technology across Asia, Africa, and Europe. The reality of the situation—one that the Pentagon and Congress have emphasized—is that Huawei is, for all intents and purposes, an arm of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).

building infrastructure that gives the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) both legal and illegal pathways to access data, shape global standards, and export digital authoritarianism. As I experienced firsthand, policymakers are rarely faced with perfect choices. As such, some objectives take second or third place in order to meet urgent national security imperatives. When I oversaw export controls at the Commerce Department, I saw how China’s “Made in China 2025” plan and 5G Belt and Road initiatives were implemented in order to lock entire regions into dependence on Chinese supply chains. 

Rural communities, in particular, were vulnerable—unaware that the promise of cheap networks came at the high price of potential predatory network infiltration. Secure networks are the backbone of everything that matters now and in the future: artificial intelligence, advanced manufacturing, and the weapons systems that keep us safe. If China dominates 5G, it not only gains economic leverage, but benefits from increased control over the flow of critical data and development of some emerging technologies. 

Leveraging Flexible Partnerships and the Thucydides Dance

Source Link

At dawn Sun Pin lured P’ang Chüan and half his army onto a narrow path along which Sun Pin had removed bark from a large tree. Sun Pin positioned his army in ambush along the trail with the instruction to fire when they saw a torch. General P’ang Chüan was summoned to the bare tree by his advanced guard. He lit a torch to examine the tree and discovered writing which stated “P’ang Chüan will die beneath this tree.” Sun Pin wrote the ending of his enemy by making his enemy’s path appear obvious and easy, but it took P’ang Chüan’s action to make that ending under the tree of destiny manifest. The challenge is that the path is not always the most obvious, direct, easy, or constant.

In the current global political climate marked by intricacy and interdependence, it is imperative to adopt a more sophisticated methodology when forging alliances. This proposed new strategy is characterized by adaptable relationships, collaborations centered around specific issues, and a shared set of values. This approach presents a practical and effective means for countries to navigate the complexities arising from China’s growing influence without having to resort to rigid alliances or direct confrontations. It allows for a more nuanced and flexible approach that can adapt to the evolving geopolitical landscape.

Emerging global powers that aim to supplant the United States as a global power are rivals, rather than potential allies who are open to sharing power across multiple nations. These rivals are attempting to rewrite narratives and histories to sow internal conflict abroad and justify the annexation of sovereign lands. Confronting these rivals directly would only amplify their internal and external narratives of the United States as an aggressor or enemy. Instead, the authors propose an indirect path of developing strong alliances and avoiding the narrow path of requiring allies to perfectly align with U.S. 

foreign and domestic policy. The narrow path of homogenous alignment, which does not tolerate entanglements, leads to global polarization and allows rivals to form counteralliances among the alienated. Rather than trying to force countries to align perfectly with its policies, the authors argue that the United States should focus on building strong, adaptable relationships with other countries to avoid global polarization and counteralliances. Published in the July-August 2023 edition of Military Review by Boling and Sanders, this article discusses an enduring and equitable partnership between India and the United States that could present opportunities for both nations to work together to contain China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific region.

The Army Is Dangerously Low on One Key Weapon in the Pacific

Jim Fein

Source Link

The U.S. Army has a major role to play in the Pacific—and it needs the right tools to do it. So why is the Precision Strike Missile (PrSM), one of the Army’s newest and most relevant capabilities, underfunded in this year’s defense budget request, despite the clear and present strategic need for it? The Indo-Pacific is primarily a maritime theater dominated by air and naval operations, but PrSMs would help the Army support the Air Force and Navy with long-range precision strike capabilities, holding Chinese assets at risk with mobile ground-based platforms that are hard to target.

Unfortunately, the Fiscal Year 2026 Budget Request (FY-26 PDB) reduces PrSM procurement relative to the Army’s 2025 request.. While in FY-25 it requested funding for 230 missiles, the FY-26 PDB request only requested funding for 45 PrSMs, both lower than the FY-25 request and the FY-26 projection of 268 missiles. The remainder appear to be on the Army’s unfunded priorities list, which lists $324 million for PrSMs. This is not in line with the Army’s own stated priorities and makes it less relevant in the Indo-Pacific. 

MDTFs are already a proven success. While originally designated for a temporary deployment to the Philippines, the first deployed MDTF is now scheduled to stay in the Philippines indefinitely. Admiral Paparo, head of INDOPACOM, stated that “fundamentally alters the strategic calculus in the contested environment,” a glowing endorsement from a leader outside of the service. The Army should be standing up and expanding more MDTFs, not pulling back.

MDTFs are vital but only work if they are armed. Decreasing PrSM procurement doesn’t just make the Army less relevant in the highest priority theater, it also contributes to a longstanding problem that harms the defense industrial base (DIB): inconsistent procurement. Industry investment needs a strong business case to spend capital on increasing production capacity. That business case in turn relies on a strong and consistent demand signal, to provide certainty that the investment will pay off. 

Why the United States Should Not Fear a Space Pearl Harbor

Zachary Burdette

Source Link

In the early 2000s, U.S. defense analysts sounded the alarm (PDF) about a potential “Space Pearl Harbor.” They warned that the U.S. military was becoming increasingly dependent on a small number of vulnerable satellites that would become tempting targets during a crisis or conflict. Those fears grew exponentially after China's landmark demonstration in 2007 of a direct-ascent anti-satellite (DA-ASAT) missile that destroyed a Chinese weather satellite. Some analysts have argued in the years since that satellites are becoming a liability rather than an asset, potentially even “the American military's Achilles heel.” Policymakers have warned that a Space Pearl Harbor risks leaving U.S. 

These fears have significant implications. If the United States depends heavily on satellites that it cannot defend effectively, that raises fundamental questions about its grand strategy and ability to defend allies and partners in the Pacific. If China believes that counterspace attacks could paralyze the U.S. military, that could fuel crisis instability by incentivizing China to strike first. Fortunately, the magnitude of the challenge remains more manageable than pessimists fear. While China's counterspace capabilities pose a serious challenge, worst-case scenarios of quick and easy counterspace campaigns that leave the U.S. 

Encouraging trends in the resilience of U.S. space architectures and terrestrial backups to space capabilities are mitigating the extent of the threat, though not eliminating it. Additionally, the Space Pearl Harbor framing overlooks that, rather than just playing defense, the United States also needs sustained investments to counter the dramatic growth of China's own space capabilities that could enable long-range strikes and put U.S. forces at increasing risk. If the United States depends heavily on satellites that it cannot defend effectively, that raises fundamental questions about its grand strategy and ability to defend allies and partners in the Pacific.

Historical Pessimism About Resilience Against Counterspace Attacks. There are three main reasons that policymakers and analysts have expressed alarm about the U.S.'s ability to defend against Chinese counterspace attacks. First, the conventional wisdom is that the attacker has significant structural advantages over the defender in space. Analysts point to factors such as the predictability of orbits and the difficulty of hiding satellites as reasons that space is “an inherently vulnerable and offense-dominant domain.” Additionally, because DA-ASATs have historically been much cheaper than satellites, some observers believe that “defense is impractical in the long term”. 

McKinsey Technology Trends Outlook 2025

Lareina Yee, Michael Chui, Roger Roberts, and Sven Smit

Source Link

The global technology landscape is undergoing significant shifts, propelled by fast-moving innovations in technologies. These are exponentially increasing demand for computing power, capturing the attention of management teams and the public, and accelerating experimentation. These developments are occurring against a backdrop of rising global competition as countries and corporations race to secure leadership in producing and applying these strategic technologies. This year’s McKinsey Technology Trends Outlook provides in-depth perspectives on 13—a “baker’s dozen”—frontier technology trends with the potential to transform global business. 

Executives today face a mandate to navigate rising complexity, scale emerging solutions, and build trust in a world where the lines between digital and physical and centralized and decentralized continue to blur. The insights in this report can help business leaders decide which of these frontier technologies are most relevant to their companies by demonstrating how others are starting to apply them today. These findings emerge from our analysis of quantitative measures of interest, innovation, equity investment, and talent that underpin each of the 13 trends and explore the underlying technologies, uncertainties, and questions around them. 

(For more about our research, please see the sidebar, “Research methodology.”) This outlook highlights transformative trends that are driving innovation and addressing critical challenges across sectors. Artificial intelligence stands out not only as a powerful technology wave on its own but also as a foundational amplifier of the other trends. Its impact increasingly occurs via a combination with other trends, as AI both accelerates progress within individual domains and unlocks new possibilities at the intersections—accelerating the training of robots, advancing scientific discoveries in bioengineering, optimizing energy systems, and much more. 

The evolution of AI solutions in the marketplace increasingly combines aspects of trends we previously analyzed separately as applied AI and generative AI, so this year, they are examined together. Even as excitement about AI applications and their use cases builds, realizing AI’s full potential across sectors will require continued innovations to manage computing intensity, reduce deployment costs, and drive infrastructure investment. This will also demand thoughtful approaches to safety, governance, and workforce adaptation, creating a wide range of opportunities for industry leaders, policymakers, and entrepreneurs alike.