GZERO Media | Ian Bremmer
On May 17, over 500 Ukrainian drones penetrated Moscow’s air defenses, striking oil infrastructure, military-industrial plants, and apartment buildings, killing four and wounding a dozen. This attack, following a deadly Russian barrage on Kyiv, signals a turning tide in the Russia-Ukraine war, driven by Ukraine's evolving long-range drone capabilities. Ukraine now wages small frontline battles without soldiers, using AI-enhanced drones and robotic vehicles, causing debilitating psychological effects and surging Russian desertions. Russia's inability to match Ukraine's drone edge is partly due to Elon Musk's Starlink cutoff, setting Russia back a year in unmanned capabilities. Russia has lost over 350,000 soldiers, with total casualties exceeding one million, and its killed-to-wounded ratio has inverted due to drone warfare. Ukrainian deep strikes have damaged over 20 Russian oil refineries, knocking 500,000 barrels/day capacity offline, hindering Russia's ability to capitalize on higher oil prices. Putin's theory of victory is weakening as Ukraine approaches military self-sufficiency, supported by a €90bn EU loan. A cornered Putin might escalate with hybrid operations in Europe, though direct NATO confrontation is unlikely. Ukraine is becoming a formidable military-technological power, a strategic asset for Europe and democracy.
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