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12 April 2014

THE UKRAINIAN CRISIS AND CONTRADICTION MANAGEMENT – ANALYSIS


By JTW
By Ozdem Sanberk

Turkey attributes great importance to its relations with Russia. Relations between the two countries particularly improved after the Soviet Union collapsed, and today, bilateral ties have reached to the level of inter-dependency. However, it is clear that Turkey cannot possibly turn a blind eye to the annexation of a particular territory under the sovereignty of its close neighbor Ukraine, regardless of who does it.

Russia’s hasty annexation of Crimea severely undermines international law and the global balance of power. This situation also threatens the atmosphere of relative stability and security, owing to the joint endeavors of Black Sea littoral countries throughout decades.

Turkey is rightfully concerned about the recent course of events amid a constructive process through which the Black Sea recently became the locus of cooperation between Ankara and Moscow. On the other hand, Foreign Minister Davutoğlu’s visit to Ukraine implies that Turkey will not be a mere spectator to the ongoing crisis, despite its limited political elbow room.

Crimean Tatars

Crimean Tatars are the primary source of Turkey’s concern. They had experienced great tragedies in the not too distant past. They were exiled from their homeland by the tsarist regime and once again during Soviet era, and subjected to massacres. Many Crimean Tatars had immigrated to Turkey since then, primarily the 19th century onward. They have since played a prominent and respectable role on the economic, political, and social stage in Turkey. However, after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, many Crimean Tatars had the opportunity to return to their homeland. At the end of the day, they still make up almost 15% of the peninsular population. These people are against Crimea’s annexation by Russia, and they did not vote during the latest Russian-arranged referendum in Crimea. No Turkish government has the privilege of remaining silent in the face of what these people are currently going through. Turkey will surely provide political, economic, and humanitarian aid to these people. Nevertheless, we should also take note of the latest statements in favor of Crimean Tatars, suggesting that their language will be designated as one of the three official languages in the peninsula along with Russian and Ukrainian. Moreover, it is also noteworthy that they were recently promised cheap housing by Moscow.

Turkey and Russia

Turkey indeed values its relations with Russia greatly. Relations between the two countries particularly improved after the Soviet Union collapsed, and today, bilateral ties have reached a level entailing inter-dependency, mostly in people-to-people contacts, commercial relations, economic exchanges, and the energy security field. However it is obvious that Turkey cannot keep silent against a large territory being snatched from a prominent country like Ukraine, which is a close maritime neighbor of Turkey to the north of the Black Sea, in such a blatant manner followed by the aggressor annexing that territory—regardless of the perpetrator. Russia’s behavior in this regard is undoubtedly unacceptable; it is an overt violation of international law. Additionally, a new link bearing the potential of endless instability has thereby been added to the chain of chronic conflict zones leftover from the Cold War era. This link implicates the either Russian-affiliated or fundamentally ethnic Russian communities spread around the Black Sea Basin, including those in Moldova/Transnistria, Georgia/Abkhazia/South Ossetia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia/Nagorno-Karabakh. It is certain that from now on, Russia will assume a more uncompromising attitude with regard to the resolution of relevant disputes as mentioned above. Moreover, the potential winds of change, which may be blowing in countries like Belarus, have been negatively affected.

On the other hand, the aforementioned conflicts are thinly populated regional (and arguably marginal) disputes. Yet, the crisis surrounding Ukraine is gradually escalating to a global level due to Ukraine’s critical location at Europe’s doorstep, straddling energy hubs between Russia and the Black Sea, and its population of almost 50 million including Crimea.

Sanctions

It is not yet clear how the international community will manage this crisis. It partly depends on Russia’s attitude in the forthcoming period. But one thing is for certain, that no Western country wants an armed conflict. Despite everything, Russia held a referendum in Crimea, and the local population declared its will to become a part of Russia with an overwhelming majority. If Russia contents itself with annexing Crimea following the referendum then tensions between Moscow and the Western world will continue but within a limited scope. That is because the perception—prevalent among Westerners—that Ukraine historically belongs to Russia indeed makes things easier for Moscow. However, Russia may wish to secure a broad corridor passing through eastern Ukraine and linking Crimea to the Russian mainland in order to sustain the invasion. Actually Russia may decide to invade the entirety of eastern Ukraine instead of contenting itself by only obtaining a small portion of it. If Russia takes action in this direction and decides to take the entire region, tensions between Russia and the West will escalate, though rewinding the tape will still be impossible. That is because the Western public is overwhelmingly of the opinion that like Crimea, the whole of Ukraine inherently orbits Russia.

Besides, the Western world cannot impose effective sanctions on Russia, but can only take some symbolic measures against it in the short run. Europe has not been able to impose any serious sanctions on Russia yet, and it is not expected to be able to do so in the foreseeable future. The Ukrainian crisis indeed laid bare the structural, if not the institutional vulnerability of the EU in terms of foreign policy-making once again. Bilateral ties in the fields of trade, economy, and energy between Russia and each EU member render it impossible for the Union to impose painful sanctions on Russia in lockstep. However, Europe has the option of reconsidering its long-term strategy regarding energy supply in a manner that will decrease its dependence on Russia.

As to President Obama, he currently seems to be going on a diplomatic attack in Europe against Russia. Obama’s goal is to ostracize Russia on the international arena. However, such a policy of isolation may not yield results in the UN or in the Middle East; indeed, it can even backfire.

Eastern Ukraine

Russia can be expected to extend its political clout, to say the least, over Ukraine in the near future. Russia can achieve this by destabilizing eastern Ukraine where Moscow-affiliated groups such as ethnic Russians and other Russian-speakers can be easily manipulated.

If Moscow resorts to such attempts, it will be difficult for the Western world not to interfere. Even though trade sanctions won’t be able to yield concrete results quickly, the fact that the West insists on not recognizing Russia’s annexation of Crimea and steadfastly stands by the legitimacy of the new government in Kiev can bring pressure to bear on Russia over the long run. The constant tension with the EU and U.S. may hamper the flow of foreign investment, technical support, and financial credit to Russia. Subsequent rises in inflation and capital outflow will lead to problems in growth rates and unemployment.

Both Russia and the West “pay the price”

It can be argued that in a country like Russia where people are used to authoritarian rule, such economic burdens may indeed not undermine Putin’s increased popularity. Nevertheless, it may become more difficult for Putin to be elected president for a fourth term if the economy further deteriorates. In its attempts to destabilize Ukraine, Russia may end up with its own domain destabilized. The resulting circumstances will serve the purposes of neither Russia nor the West, who are collaborating with regard to several crucial issues such as Afghanistan, Iran’s nuclear program, and the destruction of Syria’s chemical weapons. If the West manages to exhibit a steadfast attitude now, Putin may not be indifferent to Western calls for dialogue later.

Turkey

Currently, our country is under the threat of the Middle East’s insecurities while our alliance with Western countries is ostensibly at a defining moment and domestic political tensions are on the rise. Against such a backdrop, we are now confronted with the challenge of instability emerging around the Black Sea Basin. Turkey is the second-largest importer of Russian gas after Germany. Russian exports make up 60% of our total natural gas consumption. Overall, Russia is our second-largest trade partner. Even if we have differences of opinion regarding Cyprus, the Middle East, and Syria, we did not let them overshadow our bilateral political relations. Both parties have taken great care to comply with the Montreaux Convention (which regulates the Straits) and help maintain security around the Black Sea.

On the other hand, we need to bear in mind that Russia will attempt to transform the Crimean Peninsula—which is currently miserable in economic terms—into a showcase for the whole region. Therefore Crimea is expected to witness huge amounts of public works in the near future, and it should not be forgotten that Turkish firms—known for their success in Russia—may be among the luckiest contractors.

Turkey will no doubt demonstrate solidarity with the people and government of Ukraine which are being subjected to injustice. However, such solidarity cannot realistically exceed a democratic and economic framework. In other words, at this stage Ukraine’s accession to NATO or the establishment of Western military bases in Russia’s immediate neighborhood can lead to adverse outcomes. Moreover, it must be kept in mind that Turkey will adhere to the notion of preserving the status-quo around the Black Sea Basin and continue to scrupulously fulfill its obligations set by the Treaty of Montreaux.

Our hope is that the elections held in Ukraine next month (in May 2014) will allow for the people to democratically come together again. That would constitute a new and important step toward stability and security around the Black Sea Basin.

Ozdem Sanberk, Director of USAK

This article was first published in Analist Monthly Journal, on April 2014.

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