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9 July 2014

Recent Publications

Recent Publications 
Added June 26, 2014 

Authored by Dr. Robert Nalbandov. 


Ukraine, Georgia, and Belarus have remarkable variance and incongruence between their levels of democratization, political stability, and economic development. This monograph by Dr. Robert Nalbandov explains the reasons for the different indicators in the three categories and explains the successes and failures of the democratization efforts in three post-Soviet countries. 

Added June 24, 2014 

Authored by Lieutenant Colonel Clarence J. Bouchat (USAF, Ret.). 


Learn how the Paracel Islands disputes act as a primer about the South China Sea conflicts and U.S., Vietnamese, and Chinese relations in the region. This analysis may help the reader better understand these disputes, and how the United States may address them. 

Added June 19, 2014 

Authored by COL John D. Ellis, COL (Ret.) Laura McKnight Mackenzie. 


Despite fighting shoulder-to-shoulder this past decade, the U.S. Army is comprised of essentially “three Armies”—the active component, the Army Reserve, and the National Guard. While an intriguing start to integrate the three components, the Army Total Force Policy is not a panacea for reform. Real and meaningful work still needs to be done to bring the three into effective alignment and in a way to foster cooperation and mutual respect. 

Added June 17, 2014 

Edited by Mr. Henry D. Sokolski. 


The further proliferation and possible use of nuclear weapons are among the very greatest threats to U.S. and international security, yet most governments and industry officials downplay the risks of civilian nuclear technology and materials being diverted to make bombs. They use this optimistic assessment in formulating U.S. and international nuclear trade and nonproliferation policies. This volume taps the insights and analyses of 13 top nuclear and security experts to weigh the validity of their narrative. The result is a comprehensive counternarrative that recommends a significant tightening of current nonproliferation controls. 

Added June 17, 2014 

Edited by Professor John F. Troxell. 

For several years, the Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) has annually published the Key Strategic Issues List (KSIL). The purpose of this document is to make students and other researchers aware of strategic topics that are of special interest to the U.S. Army. Part I of KSIL is entitled "Army Priorities for Strategic Analysis" (APSA) and is a list of high-priority topics organized to support the Army's five strategic objectives as identified in the "2014 Army Strategic Planning Guidance." Students and researchers are encouraged to get in touch with the topic sponsors listed in the document. Thorough research and solid arguments on these topics are extremely important to the Army in this period of transition and geopolitical uncertainty. 

Added June 13, 2014 

Authored by Dr. Paul Kamolnick. 


Fighting the War of Deeds begins by taking deeds seriously—deadly serious—as action, policy, and communication. As communication, deeds furnish the U.S. Government a uniquely potent means for countering al-Qaeda’s terrorist propaganda effectively, and also building longer-term alliances based on mutuality with the Arab and Muslim world. 

Added June 13, 2014 

Authored by Dr. Harsh V. Pant. 


This monograph examines the evolution on Sino-India ties over the last few decades and the constraints that continue to inhibit this relationship from achieving its full potential before delineating the implications of this for the United States and the wider international system. 

Added June 13, 2014 

Authored by Mr. Nathan P. Freier. 

The 25th Annual U.S. Army War College Strategy Conference "Balancing the Joint Force to Meet Future Security Challenges" occurred against the backdrop of a complicated decision making environment. It sought establish a context for future military decision making based on two foundational questions: what are the most important military demands facing U.S./partner forces through the next decade and how should they think about confronting them? The author endeavors to describe the context that emerged here. 

Added June 11, 2014 

Authored by Dr. Thomas M. Chen. 


This monograph examines the threat of cyberterrorism before and after STUXNET by addressing questions of motive, means, and opportunity. STUXNET has not changed the near-term likelihood of cyberterrorism, which remains low, but has implications for the cost-benefit weights of future attacks. 

Added June 03, 2014 

Authored by Dr. John R. Deni. 


The U.S. Army's forward presence in the Pacific theater is long overdue for reconsideration and reconceptualization. Without unduly harming America's commitment to deterrence on the Korean peninsula, the Army forward presence could be reshaped and reconfigured to enable the United States to more effectively and more efficiently achieve its objectives across the Indo-Asia-Pacific region. 

Added May 23, 2014 

Authored by Leslie S. Lebl. 


Bosnia-Herzegovina, once thought to be on the way to joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the European Union (EU), is instead falling behind, mired in political bickering, economic stalemate and governmental dysfunction. In this difficult situation, Islamism poses a significant threat to Bosnia’s fragile domestic stability. 

Added May 16, 2014 

Authored by Dr. Jean-Loup Samaan. 


Over the last 7 years, the border between Israel and Lebanon has remained quiet. Against all odds, in a Middle East experiencing tremendous challenges, Israel and Hezbollah did not trigger a new conflict. Here is the paradox of stability between these two foes which is at the origin of this monograph. 

Added May 13, 2014 

Authored by Dr. Thomas R. Mockaitis. 


What roles have security contractors played in missions in Iraq and Afghanistan? 

Added May 06, 2014 

Authored by Dr. Azeem Ibrahim. 


The Syrian civil war has allowed al-Qaeda to recover from its setbacks up to 2010. Syria has also seen a civil war between two al-Qaeda inspired factions (Al Nusrah and the Iraq based Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant) and indicates there are limits to its ability to cooperate with other anti-Assad factions and gain popular appeal. 

Added May 05, 2014 

Authored by Keir Giles, Dr. Andrew Monaghan. 


This Letort Paper assesses the range of options available to Russia for closing the capability gap with the United States and its allies, the authors review a flawed political perception of the key threats facing Russia and the challenges facing Russia’s military transformation. 

Added May 02, 2014 

Authored by Dr. Richard J. Krickus. 


This monograph addresses the question: "What next after Putin?" The answer will have a profound impact on U.S.-Russian relations—in particular, the capacity to forge a security relationship. The campaign to eliminate Syria's chemical weapons indicates that a new "reset" is in the making. 

Added April 30, 2014 

Authored by Dr. Don M. Snider, COL (USA Ret) Alexander P. Shine. 


Are the Stewards of the Army Profession developing a culture that fosters the necessary integration of Soldiers' personal moralities with the Profession's Ethic? The authors suggest that they are not. 

Added April 25, 2014 

Authored by Dr. George W. Grayson. 


Few cartel leaders acquire fame for culinary skills. However, Miguel Ángel “El 40” Treviño Morales, the sadistic erstwhile chief of Los Zetas, became skilled in preparing "el guiso" (the stew). His recipe is simple. After torturing a victim, even an infant, he plunged him into a 55-gallon pig cooker, doused him with gasoline, and set him on fire. 

Added April 22, 2014 

Edited by Mr. Roy Kamphausen, Dr. David Lai, Mr. Travis Tanner. 


How has President Hu Jintao contributed to China’s military modernization? 

Added April 16, 2014 

Edited by Dr. John R. Deni. 


The role of allies and partners in the future of American Landpower is discussed. 

Added March 31, 2014 

Authored by Dr. Ariel Cohen. 


Understanding the conflict in North Caucasus may be the key to understanding the future of the post-communist Russian state and its interaction with Islam, as well as regional mountainous insurgencies. The region’s turbulent past and present make it a potential source of future waves of instability both within Russia and abroad—especially if the Kremlin and the Russian and local elites fail to deal with accumulating local economic, social, religious, and political pressures. 

Added March 19, 2014 

Authored by Dr. Colin S. Gray. 


What do we believe we know about the future with sufficient reliability for it to serve as a basis for defense planning? Science and social science are both utterly disarmed by the complete absence of data about the future, from the future. 

Added March 12, 2014 

Authored by Bill Park. 


The withdrawal of U.S. combat forces from Iraq at the end of 2011 left behind a set of unresolved problems in the relationship between the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), and the Federal Government in Baghdad, compounded by Erbil’s subsequent pursuit of an energy relationship with Turkey. This has deepened both Turkish-Iraqi and regional sectarian tensions and, along with developments in Syria, has raised the specter of wider Kurdish self-determination, a prospect that Washington has been slow to recognize. 

Added March 11, 2014 

Authored by Keir Giles, Dr. Andrew Monaghan. 


The United States and its allies are in general agreement on the legal status of conflict in cyberspace. But other key cyber actors have radically different ideas on key concepts of cyber warfare, including when a state of war exists. This paper explores the Russian approach to legal constraints governing actions in cyberspace, in order to assist in formulating an effective response to Russian cyber initiatives. 

Added March 05, 2014 

Authored by Dr. Larry M. Wortzel. 


The Chinese government plans to establish a new air defense intercept zone which will include the Diaoyu or Senkaku Islands, sovereignty over which is disputed by Japan, China, and Taiwan. Due to complaints of cyber penetrations attributed to the Chinese People’s Liberation Army, U.S. Departments of Justice, Homeland Security, and State are devising new means to protect intellectual property and secrets from the PLA’s computer network operations. 

Added February 14, 2014 

Authored by Lieutenant Colonel (Ret) Michael J. Colarusso, Lieutenant Colonel David S. Lyle. 


Former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates characterized the "greatest challenges facing the Army" as the "institutional and bureaucratic constipation" of its officer management systems. In this book, Mike Colarusso and Dave Lyle examine the Army's industrial-era personnel practices and prescribe a senior officer talent management approach that they believe is better suited to the demands of tomorrow. 

Added January 08, 2014 

Edited by Dr. John R. Deni. 

The rapidly changing global energy supply situation, coupled with a host of social, political, and economic challenges facing consumer states, has significant implications for the United States generally and for the U.S. military specifically. The U.S. Army War College gathered experts from the policymaking community, academia, think tanks, the private sector, and the military services at the Reserve Officers Association in Washington, DC on 19-20 November 2013 to address first the major ‘new realities’ both geographically and technologically and then the specific military implications. This compendium of executive summaries is based on the presentations delivered at that conference, which was funded through the generous support of the U.S. Army War College Foundation. 

Added December 30, 2013 

Authored by David E. Brown. 


Two key long-term energy trends are shifting the strategic balance between the United States and China, the world’s superpower rivals in the 21st century: first, a domestic boom in U.S. shale oil and gas dramatically boosting America’s energy security; second, the frenetic and successful search for hydrocarbons in Africa making it an increasingly crucial element in China’s energy diversification strategy. 


Added December 27, 2013 

Authored by Lieutenant Colonel Clarence J. Bouchat (USAF, Ret.). 


The Spratly Islands disputes are the nexus of interests and clashes for U.S. partners and competitors that will draw in the United States as it involves itself more in Asia-Pacific issues. This analysis may help readers to better understand these disputes and how the United States may better address them. 

Added December 10, 2013 

Edited by Dr. Stephen J. Blank. 


Is this the beginning of the end for Putin's system? The authors investigate the structural bases for Russia's domestic challenges, if not crisis.

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