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26 February 2016

THE BIG-DATA FUTURE HAS ARRIVED — ‘THE GREATEST HINDRANCE TO PROGRESS IS NOT IGNORANCE, BUT….THE ILLUSION OF KNOWLEDGE”

by RC Porter 
February 23, 2016 
www.fortunascorner.com

The Big-Data Future Has Arrived — ‘The Greatest Hindrance To Progress Is Not Ignorance, But………..The Illusion Of Knowledge” 

John Malone, who writes often for The Wall Street Journal, and author of “The Intel Trinity,” published by Harper Collins on 2014, has an Op-Ed in this morning’s WSJ, (February 23, 2016) discussing the promise of big data mining. Mr. Malone writes that “big data, the tech story of a few years ago, is now beginning to show big results. The science of using powerful computers, ubiquitous sensors, and the Web to crunch mountains of raw data — to uncover previously invisible insights, is increasingly used in big businesses [Wall Street, etc.], universities, and government agencies. It is transforming our understanding of everything — from fetal development, to cosmology.”

“Already,” Mr. Malone writes, “thanks to big data, we have learned that toddlers learn language, not from repetition — which we’ve thought for centuries, but by hearing words used in multiple contexts. We’ve also found that premature babies are at greatest risk, when their heartbeats are stable (healthy babies’s hearts are more erratic).”

One of the most extraordinary features of big data,” Mr. Malone argues, “is that it signals the end of the reign of statistics. For 400 years, we’ve been forced to sample complex systems, and extrapolate. Now, with big data, it is possible to measure everything, from the movement of billions of stars, to every beat of the human heart.”

“Big data is also making its way, almost silently [and pervasively] into everyday life. In Israel,” Mr. Malone notes, “80 percent of the citizenry contribute traffic data to help each other commute via theWAZE app on Smartphones, increasingly the platform of choice for big data.”

“But most of all,” Mr. Malone postulates, “big data is about to ask some cultural questions [it already is] for which we have no real answers, much less consensus. For example, who owns personal data? Today, the answer is not clear — and, it may [almost certainly will] take legal precedent, perhaps even the adoption of a Bill of Data Rights, to resolve that question”

“When you can study billions, even trillions of data points, you begin to uncover forces and trends that until now,have always been invisible to human observers. What if that impacted wisdom tooth you had at age 10 — shortens your life 70 years later? Or, if that one fugitive, missed heartbeat last week is a harbinger of cardiac trouble to come next month?”

‘The Greatest Hindrance To Progress Is Not Ignorance, But….The Illusion Of Knowledge,” Unknown who said or wrote this quote.

Having, or getting the right information, faster than anyone else, has always been one of the most critical priorities — from Leonidas and the Spartans, to Napoleon and Wellington, to Eisenhower and Churchill. And, thanks to his extensive network, and use of Carrier pigeons, legendary financier Baron Rothchild knew that England/Wellington had defeated France/Napoleon at Waterloo, some two days before anyone else in England did. While many British traders were selling their stocks in an anticipation of a British defeat, or continued war — Rothschild famously began loading up on stocks — and, the rest they say….is history.

The promise of big data and what how it can enhance our lives, the planet, and beyond appears limitless at this time. We are on the cusp of making eye-watering discoveries and progress across medicine, science, engineering, transportation, entertainment, warfighting, intelligence collection/spying, etc.

But, there are also enormous pitfalls. Too much reliance on big-data mining can, and will make some of us intellectually lazy. There is the potential pitfall of too much dependence on the machines and the algorithms to do the hard, intellectual curiosity slog that is also required to provide the best situational awareness. If we lose this analytical rigor and second-guessing, we will most certainly live to regret it. Secondly, big data mining is only as good as the information that is being analyzed. If we have poor, bad/incorrect data — our findings and understanding will be flawed. Third, the big data world is full of denial and deception. False, or cleverly crafted — but, purposely deceptive data — is a huge problem; and, one that needs much more focus and attention. You don’t necessarily need a digital weapon of mass disruption like Stuxnet to cause or inflict significant harm. It is a part of the ongoing war in the cyber world that gets little visibility and focus — to our detriment.

Napoleon once said that “one well-placed spy was worth two battalions.” Now, one well-placed spy may be worth an entire city. But, one well-placed deceptive article may cause the ultimate failure of a critical weapon system, at a critical time, and so on.

Hopefully, we are making progress on tradecraft that can help; but, probably not ferret out and discover all deceptive, corrupt data.

Knowing what you don’t know, versus what you think you know; and, thinking you know something — that you don’t, i.e., WMD in Iraq, are issues that even big data — can’t solve.

Do not get me wrong, I am a big believer in big data mining/analytics. But, as with anything else — there is no silver bullet; and, if we become too dependent on it — at the expense of an insatiable curiosity and second-guessing — we will live to regret it. V/R, RCP

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