Indian Strategic Studies: 10/06/17

6 October 2017

The House Armed Committee hearing.

The newspapers have extensively covered the statements made by James N Mattis, US Secy of Defence and Joseph F. Dunford, Chairman of the Joint Chief of Staff at the House Armed Committee hearing.

One does not get the sense of the complete hearing if you don’t see the hearing. The 3 hours and 14 minute hearing has to be viewed to understand how the present US Govt is planning to address South Asian region. It is available at https://armedservices.house.gov/legislation/hearings/us-defense-strategy-afghanistan

How about putting our RM and Chief of Armed Forces to answer searching questions under a parliamentary committee. There is no aide to help out. One has to be one his own.

MPs need not worry. They can employ experts to help them understand issues on National Security and draft questionnaire. People like me who are loath to appear before the idiot box and available.

Just flying kite.

DID CHINA USE WATER AS A WEAPON IN THE DOKLAM STANDOFF?

JOEL WUTHNOW

Editor’s Note: This is the tenth installment of “Southern (Dis)Comfort,” a new series from War on the Rocks and the Stimson Center. The series seeks to unpack the dynamics of intensifying competition — military, economic, diplomatic — in Southern Asia, principally between China, India, Pakistan, and the United States. Catch up on the rest of the series.

Why India is worried about China's dam projects on the Brahmaputra river

NEW DELHI: Within days of India announcing plans to assert its right within the Indus Water Treaty with Pakistan, China said it was building a dam on a tributary of the Yarlung Zangbo, as Brahmaputra is known in Tibet. This will be its 'most expensive hydel project'. Here's all about the project, the tributary and why India worries about the project.

Why India sees red

Modern Biotechnology and India’s Governance Imperatives

ANANTH PADMANABHAN, R. SHASHANK REDDY, SHRUTI SHARMA

Like all countries, India faces the reality that modern biotechnology is unlocking many advances in healthcare, food and energy security, and environmental conservation. At the same time, these same breakthroughs are ushering in a host of potential threats, including biological warfare and irreversible alterations to the human gene pool.

To navigate this complex policy landscape, India needs to craft a more streamlined regulatory system and take other concrete steps to support growth in its domestic biotech sector. Doing so would likely help New Delhi—a much-needed voice from the developing world—vie for a chance to play a leading role in discussions on global governance, as nations begin formulating responsible global standards in response to recent biotech innovations.

India's Rohingya Policy: Is it Legally Sound?

Abhijit Iyer Mitra

When Union Home Minister Rajnath Singh labelled Rohingya refugees in India “illegal immigrants” he was patently wrong. The difference between illegal immigrants and refugees is quite simple – choice. An illegal immigrant chooses to cross borders, while refugees have no choice, migrating because of extreme duress in their normal habitat. The question in the legal sense, from the Indian point of view, is different. First, does it have a legal obligation to abide by the UN Refugee Convention to which it is not a member? Second, at what point are its legal obligations to refugees trumped by the need to maintain domestic law and order?

WHEN MARSHALL MET PERSHING

BENJAMIN RUNKLE

Today marks the 100th anniversary of one of the key moments leading to the Allied victory over the Axis powers in World War II.

Don’t worry, your math is not wrong.

Oct. 3, 1917, is the centennial of General John J. Pershing’s inspection of the 1st Infantry Division at Gondrecourt, France. This obscure event would not only have significant repercussions for the American effort in the next world war, but also offer lessons for leadership development in the U.S. military a century later.

Beyond the call of duty!

By Lt Gen H S Panag

The first-ever Param Vishisht Seva Medal of the Indian Army was awarded to Lt Gen B M Kaul in 1960, notably for the successful completion of Operation Amar – the construction of 1,450 barracks/family quarters for troops in Ambala – which was inaugurated by the Prime Minister on August 20, 1958. This project was the brainchild of the Defence Minister VK Krishna Menon. To save on cost, the project entailed using troops as labour for the construction. Gen Thimayya, the Chief of Army Staff, was opposed to the project, but during his absence for a visit to the USA, Maj Gen B M Kaul, then General Officer Commanding (GOC) of 4 Infantry Division at Ambala, directly approached the Defence Minister and got the necessary approvals. The famous Red Eagle division rose to the occasion under his dynamic command and successfully completed the projected in a record seven months.

The US Will Be Dropping A Lot More Bombs on Afghanistan

BY CAROLINE HOUCK

Sixteen years into America’s war in Afghanistan, the Pentagon has a new strategy it says will help bring the conflict to an end. A large part of it: Intensifying the U.S.- and NATO-led air campaign in order to drive the Taliban to the negotiating table.

Defense Secretary Jim Mattis said the U.S. wants to embolden the Afghan forces by providing close air support and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance assets. That will make them more effective, in turn convincing the Taliban and other extremist groups that “you’re not going to be able to win this by killing.”

A Water War in Asia?

BRAHMA CHELLANEY
Source Link

Tensions over water are rising in Asia – and not only because of conflicting maritime claims. While territorial disputes, such as in the South China Sea, attract the most attention, the strategic ramifications of competition over transnationally shared freshwater resources are just as ominous.

Tensions over water are rising in Asia – and not only because of conflicting maritime claims. While territorial disputes, such as in the South China Sea, attract the most attention – after all, they threaten the safety of sea lanes and freedom of navigation, which affects outside powers as well – the strategic ramifications of competition over transnationally shared freshwater resources are just as ominous.

The Chinese World Order

Andrew J. Nathan
Source Link

Ten years ago the journalist James Mann published a book called The China Fantasy, in which he criticized American policymakers for using something he called “the Soothing Scenario” to justify the policy of diplomatic and economic engagement with China. According to this view, China’s exposure to the benefits of globalization would lead the country to embrace democratic institutions and support the American-led world order. Instead, Mann predicted, China would remain an authoritarian country, and its success would encourage other authoritarian regimes to resist pressures to change.

Sharing an article on India China relations.

India–China relations have always been shaped by contradictory factors, with forces of cooperation limited by competing geopolitical ideas and interests. This complex model of interactions has served both sides reasonably well, and attempts to elevate one mode of interaction as the dominant one have invariably failed. The recent Doklam crisis showed that, despite efforts from both sides to transform the relationship to one of outright rivalry and confl ict, the basic framework proved resilient enough to pull back both countries from the brink.

IN SEARCH OF THE VIRTUAL CALIPHATE: CONVENIENT FALLACY, DANGEROUS DISTRACTION

HARORO J. INGRAM AND CRAIG WHITESIDE

At this crucial point in the war against the self-proclaimed Islamic State, as it hemorrhages territory across Syria and Iraq, the latest analytical fad in the study of this movement may be leading policymakers to repeat the mistakes of a mere decade ago. The term “virtual caliphate” has grown in popularity as a way to describe the future trajectory of the Islamic State. More than just a catchy sound bite, it has emerged as a way to conceptualize how the Islamic State will recalibrate its efforts in the wake of territorial losses. And so, the notion of a virtual caliphate appears to be shaping strategic-policy debate and development. For example, Gen. Joseph Votel, the commander of U.S. Central Command, co-authored the report #Virtual Caliphate: Defeating ISIL on the Physical Battlefield is Not Enough with Lt. Col. Christina Bembenek, Charles Hans, Jeffery Mouton, and Amanda Spencer. This is how the authors describe the virtual caliphate:

The US-Russia Race to Beat ISIS in Eastern Syria

By Patrick Hoover

The race to rule eastern Syria after the defeat of Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) is quickly and quietly escalating into a focal point of US-Russian tension and competition. The US-backed, Kurdish-majority Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the Russian-backed Syrian regime are conducting separate, but competing, offensives in Deir al-Zour Province, ISIS’ last remaining territorial stronghold. The United States and Russia must not only jointly work toward de-confliction, but also recognize the dangerous fluidity and deep influence of local dynamics in shaping the post-ISIS future.

REPORT Abandoning Iranian Nuclear Deal Could Lead to New Wave of Cyberattacks

BY KATE BRANNEN

Over the last two years, U.S. banks and government agencies have enjoyed a notable respite from malicious Iranian cyber activity. The timing of this drop-off happens to coincide with the signing of the nuclear deal with Iran in 2015.

Now with U.S. President Donald Trump threatening to walk away from the nuclear deal, cybersecurity experts say it is likely Iran could resume its attacks against Western targets should Trump actually follow through with his threat.

RUSSIA TARGETS SOLDIER SMARTPHONES, WESTERN OFFICIALS SAY

And, our networked weaponry as well. But, two can play this game. RCP, fortunascorner.com

Moscow seeks information on operations and troop strength, according to officials with NATO countries

Stratfor Worldview’s 2017 Fourth Quarter Forecast for Geopolitical Developments

Stratfor Worldview’s 2017 Fourth Quarter Forecast for Geopolitical Developments

Based on the principle that transformative world events are not random, but are in fact predictable, Stratfor develops decade, annual and quarterly forecasts. These forecast are built upon Stratfor’s geopolitical methodology, our framework for identifying and forecasting the fundamental trends shaping the international system. Below are the global trends highlighted in Stratfor’s forecast for the fourth-quarter of 2017. The complete forecast is available at Stratfor Worldview.

The Evolution of the Hybrid Threat, and Resilience as a Countermeasure

By Uwe Hartmann for NATO Defense College (NDC)

In this article, Uwe Hartmann explains that the hybrid warfare threat facing NATO is only going to become more complex, unpredictable and demanding. As a result, he contends that NATO and its member states must strengthen their resilience. So how can the Alliance make this happen? To find out, Hartmann looks at 1) the principles in strategy-making that help enhance resilience; 2) NATO’s strengths and weaknesses in such strategy-making, and more.

TOWARDS TOTAL DEFENSE MANUFACTURING VISIBILITY

REP. MIKE GALLAGHER

If we had to go to war tomorrow, could our defense manufacturing sector keep up? And are we willing to gamble our national future on the answer? The White House has wisely decided that these are questions better not left to chance. The Trump administration’s recent executive order directing a review of the defense industrial base is predicated on the insight that the health of the defense industrial base is as much a component of our national defense as any aircraft carrier or main battle tank. Gen. Joseph Dunford, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, echoed this sentiment when he warned the Senate about our “increasingly brittle industrial base.” The administration’s ongoing review provides the best opportunity in decades to think holistically about the industrial base — from workforce education, to plant and shipyard capacity, to regulations, export controls, and beyond — to ensure continued American technological superiority and military dominance.

Against North Korea, Deterrence Of A Different Kind

by Omar Lamrani

Since the turn of the millennium, war between nuclear powers has never loomed so near. As North Korea sprints toward the finish line in its race to build a credible nuclear deterrent, the window of opportunity to stop it is shrinking. With time running out, the United States may yet launch a preventive strike against Pyongyang's nuclear and missile programs, convinced that military intervention is the only way to halt its smaller adversary in its tracks.

Russia Targets NATO Soldier Smartphones, Western Officials Say

Thomas Grove

Russia has opened a new battlefront with NATO, according to Western military officials, by exploiting a point of vulnerability for almost all allied soldiers: their personal smartphones.

Troops, officers and government officials of North Atlantic Treaty Organization member countries said Russia has carried out a campaign to compromise soldiers’ smartphones. The aim, they say, is to gain operational information, gauge troop strength and intimidate soldiers....

Why The North Korean Artillery Factor Makes Military Action Extremely Risky

Last month, a poll found that a majority of Americans now support military action against North Korea if diplomatic efforts to resolve the crisis fail. While the United States undoubtedly possesses the military hardware and capabilities to deliver an effective strike on Pyongyang's nuclear facilities, retaliation by the North is highly likely to occur. While this could of course come in the shape of one of the regime's much vaunted intercontinental ballistic missiles armed with a nuclear warhead, observers believe the north's artillery would almost certainly inflict devastating damage against the south, regardless of the missile program.

Trump signed presidential directive ordering actions to pressure North Korea

By Karen DeYoung, Ellen Nakashima and Emily Rauhala
Source Link

Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and U.S. officials met with Chinese State Councilor Yang Jiechi and other Chinese officials at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing where they discussed North Korea. (Lintao Zhang)

Early in his administration, President Trump signed a directive outlining a strategy of pressure against North Korea that involved actions across a broad spectrum of government agencies and led to the use of military cyber-capabilities, according to U.S. officials.

Judy Asks: Can Spain Keep Together?

JUDY DEMPSEY

A selection of experts answer a new question from Judy Dempsey on the foreign and security policy challenges shaping Europe’s role in the world.

Federiga BindiSenior fellow at the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University, director of the Foreign Policy Initiative at the Institute for Women’s Policy Research, and D. German distinguished visiting chair at Appalachian State University

Unfortunately not—the Catalonian crisis will be the biggest challenge Europe will face since the Balkan wars, and may lead to the end of Spain as we know it.

US Kaspersky ban shows governments still don't get cybersecurity

Nicholas Stuart

Eugene Kaspersky isn't your usual Russian billionaire. He'll discuss the wonder of walking in the Kimberleys (where he was, again, earlier this year) and the look of the desert, rather than the thrill of driving very fast cars (although he'll wax lyrical about that, too).

Hello? Any readers still there?

Cyber Command Is Growing Up. Now For the Real Issue.

Cyber Command no longer acts like a five-year old, but is ready to grow up. It is the latest step in a 20-year journey. The Trump administration has ordered the elevation of the National Security Agency and U.S. Cyber Command; now the discussion can turn to the more important issue, the separation of their dual leadership.

As Michael Sulmeyer and General Michael Hayden have both written, the elevation of U.S. Cyber Command from a sub-unified command to a full unified command is neither a revolutionary or terribly ground-breaking step, just “cutting the cords” and “much ado about nothing.”

Here’s how the Army wants to integrate cyber, EW into operational formations

By: Mark Pomerleau

The Army is continuing to evolve concepts to fight and win in future operating environments, which will increasingly involve digital means of combat effects. What will these capabilities look like, and how will they impact the overall force structure?