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3 October 2020

Fighting Reported Along the Armenian-Azerbaijan Border: Is a War Possible?

by Peter Suciu

The decades-old conflict that has been simmering in the Caucasus between Armenia and Azerbaijan has flared up with dozens of deaths being reported as the two sides have engaged in new fighting over control of the mountainous region of Nagorno-Karabakh. The area is recognized as being part of Azerbaijan, but has been under the control of ethnic Armenians since a war between the two former Soviet republics ended in 1994.

The United States recognizes Nagorno-Karabakh as Azerbaijani soil, but the disputed territory is controlled by an Armenian-backed government called the Artsakh Republic.

The territory has an ethnic Armenian majority but was part of Soviet Azerbaijan from 1921 to 1991. It first attempted to break away from Azerbaijani rule amidst ethnic violence during the breakup of the Soviet Union, leading to war between the newly-independent republics of Armenia and Azerbaijan.

The 30 Years Off-and-On War

The first round of fighting began even before the break-up of the Soviet Union, with both sides engaging in guerrilla warfare beginning in 1988. With the fall of the Soviet Union it became the full-blown Nagorno-Karabakh War—and was noted for a strange mix of support from various powers. The Soviet Union initially supported Azerbaijan, while Russia later supported Armenia and then the de-facto independent Republic of Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh). Turkey supported Azerbaijan while the former Soviet state also receive arms from Israel and the Ukraine.

Since the 1994 ceasefire there have been numerous border clashes, which escalated to a four-day war in 2016 followed by renewed border clashes in 2018 and again this past July. In the three decades of fighting, tens of thousands have been killed and a million others have been forced to leave their homes, the BBC reported.

The latest round of fighting began on Sunday and both sides have blamed the other for the recent escalation. The fighting is reported to be the heaviest seen in the region since 2016 when at least 200 people were killed.

Beyond a Regional Conflict

The biggest concern now is how the war could spill out of the region and even draw in neighboring powers, notably Turkey, Russia and Iran. Turkey has declared its support for Azerbaijan, and Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Armenia must immediately end its “occupation” of the region.

During the past clashes in July, Washington called for both sides to come to the peace table.

“The United States condemns in the strongest terms the violence along the Armenia-Azerbaijan international border,” State Department spokeswoman Morgan Ortagus said in a July statement. “We urge the sides to stop using force immediately, use the existing direct communication links between them to avoid further escalation, and strictly adhere to the ceasefire.”

Russia, which has a military base in Armenia, is also friendly with Azerbaijan, and has also called for a ceasefire in the recent fighting—but it looks as if neither side is ready to back down.

Foreign Fighters

On Monday, Armenia’s Foreign Ministry announced that Turkish authorities are now recruiting mercenaries in the Middle East and will deploy those agents in the conflict.

“Turkish instructors are fighting along with the Azerbaijanis [in Nagorno-Karabakh - TASS],” Armenian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Anna Nagdalyan told Tass.

“They use Turkish weapons, including drones and aircraft,” she added. “We also have information that Turkey is recruiting terrorists and mercenaries in some of the Middle Eastern countries and is sending them to Azerbaijan. As a matter of fact, two countries—Turkey and Azerbaijan—are currently fighting against Artsakh.”

Both sides have reported casualties, including civilians, and both Armenia and Azerbaijan have imposed martial law.

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