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31 December 2020

The post-Brexit trade agreement leaves many questions unanswered


AFTER THE deal, the salesmanship. No sooner had Boris Johnson, Britain’s prime minister, and Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission’s president, announced their trade and security deal on the afternoon of December 24th than the spinning began. Ms von der Leyen got her press conference in first, and EU diplomats were quick to insist that it was Mr Johnson who had given the most ground. Clément Beaune, France’s Europe minister, declared that Britain would be subject to more export rules than any other country. Meanwhile in London an unofficial table was circulated purporting to support claims that Britain had won the argument twice as often as the EU. In an interview with the Sunday Telegraph, Mr Johnson himself boasted that he had secured “free trade with the EU without being drawn into their regulatory or legislative orbit”.

The truth is that both sides compromised. As analysts pored over the 1,255-page document that was published only on December 26th, the consensus was that Mr Johnson had given away more than expected on fisheries, whereas the EU had backed off its insistence on instant unilateral retaliation if Britain ever undercut its labour, environmental or state-aid rules. For all the point-scoring, the expectation is that most people will see enough in the deal (and be sufficiently worried by the alternative of no deal) to welcome the outcome. Brexiteers are pleased that Britain will be out of the single market and customs union and escape the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice (though this overlooks the fact that Northern Ireland will remain covered by all three). The EU believes it will have enough purchase to deter future regulatory divergence, even though some in London see such divergence as one of the key reasons for Brexit. For both sides the agreement to zero tariffs and zero quotas on goods trade will be seen as mutually beneficial.

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