Pages

24 August 2021

The Known Unknowns of Afghanistan’s Future

Frida Ghitis

The swift return of the Taliban to power has sparked panic in Afghanistan and sent shockwaves around the world. With U.S. military forces taking control of the Kabul airport and the evacuation of foreign nationals and thousands of Afghans proceeding, important questions loom about the future of Afghanistan and the impact of the convulsive events that unfolded over the past few days.

Here are some of the major unknowns going forward, the answers to which, as they emerge over the coming weeks, months and years, will determine how exactly the radical group’s return will reshape the country, the region and, very likely, the world.

The first, most immediate question is how Taliban 2.0 compares to the version that ruled from 1996 until 2001. Will today’s rulers dismantle every bit of progress made in Afghanistan over the past 20 years on women’s rights and individual freedoms? The group’s leaders insist they have changed, but experience suggests this may be more of a ploy to keep the peace until they consolidate power. Already there are reports of women being told to stay home, of female journalists being forced into hiding and of the Taliban beating and murdering women.

The group is facing little visible resistance so far, but opposition to the Taliban is significant in Afghanistan. Will a low-grade insurgency try to take on the new rulers? Will the country slide back into a civil war? If so, will it draw in outside forces? And does Afghanistan risk becoming a failed state, with a whole new set of regional and global repercussions?

What happens in Afghanistan, as the world learned two decades ago, doesn’t stay in Afghanistan. One immediate result of the Taliban’s return is the desperate effort of large numbers of Afghans to flee the country. The wrenching scenes at Kabul airport foreshadow a massive refugee crisis in the making. In addition to the human tragedy, what emerges is a geopolitical question. What impact will large refugee flows have on politics in Afghanistan’s immediate neighborhood and further afield, in Europe, for instance? The case of Syria showed us how refugees become pawns in domestic politics, ultimately a gift to nationalist demagogues and a challenge to politicians trying to cover their right flanks.

In the United States, the right-wing commentator Tucker Carlson is already stoking fears. “First we invade them, then we are invaded,” he warned dramatically. In France, with less than a year before a presidential election, President Emmanuel Macron sought to preemptively shield himself from the anti-immigrant far right, declaring, “We must anticipate and protect ourselves against major irregular migratory flows that would endanger those who use them and feed trafficking.”

Another key question concerns the very reason that brought NATO to Afghanistan in 2001: terrorism. Will the Taliban allow their country to once again become a haven for terrorist groups? Taliban leaders may not want to allow that to happen early on, but their jihadist ideology meshes so closely with other Islamist extremist groups that there’s a good chance that it will. In fact, the Taliban have already freed thousands of prisoners, including al-Qaida members, in the territories they have retaken. In addition, if the Taliban face a domestic insurgency, that would make them more likely to welcome like-minded jihadists from abroad.

The ugly scenes in Kabul are not just a stain on Biden. They tarnished the U.S. brand.

Then there’s the impact on domestic politics in the United States. The return of the Taliban and the chaotic collapse of the U.S.-backed Afghan government has become the greatest political crisis of Joe Biden’s presidency so far. He will have to contend with the consequences for the rest of his time in office. He has given his Republican opponents a powerful cudgel to use against him, even though the withdrawal was in keeping with former President Donald Trump’s commitments to the Taliban in his February 2020 Doha agreement.

Not only was Biden’s decision in line with Trump’s plans, it was very popular with the American public, who in large numbers said they supported his decision to withdraw U.S. forces from Afghanistan. Not surprisingly, the images from Kabul have taken a toll, at least temporarily. A Morning Consult/Politico poll found support for withdrawal slumped from 69 percent in April to 49 percent now. But experience suggests the fate of Afghanistan is an afterthought for American voters—until something draws it back into the headlines. Whatever happens, there is little doubt Afghanistan will become Exhibit A in the Republican case against Biden and the Democrats in the 2022 midterm congressional elections and beyond.

The ugly scenes in Kabul are not just a stain on Biden. They tarnished the U.S. brand. Potentially, although not inevitably, that could become one of the most enduring and consequential results of the debacle in Kabul. In countries around the world, leaders are observing the events from their own unique perspectives. Among those watching with the greatest attention are countries that have strong security ties to Washington and an expectation that the United States would support them if they came under threat. In places like Saudi Arabia, Taiwan and Israel, America’s actions signal a need to reconsider how reliable Washington’s support is. As a result, they could decide to move toward more self-sufficiency. Will the erosion of the Pax Americana trigger escalating arms races and create more instability?

Then there’s the question of how the rise of the Taliban will affect the region. To America’s rivals and foes such as China, Russia and Iran, this moment looks like a patently humiliating turn, a welcome milestone in the decline of the American superpower. They’ve made little effort to hide their schadenfreude. For them, America’s shame is a source of delight. Beyond that, the sudden return to power of a radical group with ties to terrorist organizations is hardly a source of unalloyed joy.

In addition to refugee inflows, the region now faces an unpredictable neighbor. Already China and Russia, not to mention Pakistan, long a sponsor of the Taliban, have worked to forge ties with Afghanistan’s new rulers. But China will worry about the Taliban hosting Uyghur militants, as they did in the past, and fomenting discontent in Xinjiang. Similarly, Moscow will worry about ties between the Afghan radicals and Muslim extremists in Russia and what it calls its near-abroad.

The events of the past week have opened up for these countries the tantalizing possibility of increasing leverage with Afghanistan’s new rulers. But for governments in Iran, Turkey and the rest of the region, engaging with the Taliban remains a thorny prospect in a volatile country. Shiite Iran, in particular, will have to tread carefully in dealing with the radical Sunni group.

For now, there are far more questions than answers. The only certainty is that the events of the past few days will affect and transform millions of lives—and reverberate for years to come.

No comments:

Post a Comment