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9 May 2022

The War in Ukraine: More Western Aid and Fear of Escalation

Eldad Shavit Shimon Stein

A high-level American visit to Kyiv, the first since the war began, by Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin – after several European leaders had already visited there in recent weeks – again showed the importance that the United States administration has assigned to its active involvement in Ukraine's military efforts against Russia. Following his visit, Blinken stated, "The strategy that we've put in place – massive support for Ukraine, massive pressure against Russia, solidarity with more than 30 countries engaged in these efforts – is having real results."

Even though it is unclear at this stage when and how the war will end, the West is continuing its focus on preventing a Russian victory and ensuring that Ukraine does not lose. It is unclear to what extent the ambitious goal declared by the US Secretary of Defense following his visit – “We want to see Russia weakened to the degree that it can't do the kinds of things that it has done in invading Ukraine" – was coordinated with NATO allies, and whether it is acceptable to the Ukrainians, who are saddled with the actual task of accomplishing it. According to Austin, the administration believes that Ukraine can be victorious and achieve a situation that guards its sovereignty and territorial integrity. The negotiations between Russia and Ukraine have reached an impasse, but it appears that even before this occurred, the US administration, even if it did not say so publicly and stated that it would respect Ukraine's wishes, showed no enthusiasm for the possibility that Russian aggression would end in a compromise agreement that the Kremlin would use to prove that Russia had achieved gains through its military campaign. From the West's perspective, Ukraine is not fighting merely for its independence and territorial integrity; it is also fighting for democracy and the principles of the liberal order. This contradicts the stance repeated by Germany, the United States, and others that they are not active partners in a war designed to protect these aims.

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