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9 January 2024

Russia Moves Forward With Plans to Buy Iranian Ballistic Missiles

Michael R. Gordon, Gordon Lubold and Benoit Faucon

Russia is planning to buy short-range ballistic missiles from Iran, a step that would enhance Moscow’s ability to target Ukraine’s infrastructure at a critical moment in the conflict, U.S. officials said.

Moscow’s plans have provoked deep concern within the Biden administration and come as support wanes in Congress for continued U.S. military assistance for Ukraine. Lawmakers have yet to pass a bill that would provide additional funding for Ukraine.

“The United States is concerned that Russian negotiations to acquire close-range ballistic missiles from Iran are actively advancing,” one of the U.S. officials said. “We assess that Russia intends to purchase missile systems from Iran.”

Iran-backed groups form a land bridge across the Middle East and connect in an alliance that Tehran calls the “Axis of Resistance.” Here’s what to know about the alliance that includes Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen. Photo Illustration: Eve Hartley

Delivery of the Iranian missiles could happen as soon as this spring if the purchase proceeds, but U.S. officials don’t believe the deal has been completed.

The Iranian missiles would add to Moscow’s recent acquisitions. Russia has already begun to receive ballistic-missile launchers and several dozen ballistic missiles from North Korea, the officials said.

U.S. officials said that Moscow’s desire to acquire Iranian missiles was evident in mid-December when a Russia delegation visited an Iranian training area to observe ballistic missiles and related equipment displayed by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Aerospace Force, including its short-range Ababil missile.

That visit, which hasn’t previously been disclosed and marks a further step toward acquiring Iranian missiles, followed a September trip by Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu to the headquarters of the IRGC Aerospace Force in Tehran. During that visit, Shoigu observed a display of the Ababil and other missile systems, U.S. officials said. He also met Maj. Gen. Mohammad Bagheri, the chief of staff of Iran’s armed forces, and boasted that Russian-Iranian relations were reaching a new level.

Engulfed in a grinding war of attrition and facing international sanctions, Russia has also turned to North Korea to supplement its efforts to produce arms at home. Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un held a summit at a spaceport in Russia’s far east in September and pledged greater cooperation on economic and security issues.

In the past several weeks, North Korea has begun to ship a range of weaponry to Russia, including, for the first time, short-range ballistic missiles to eastern Russia, according to several officials familiar with the transaction. The weaponry includes previously reported stocks of artillery, officials said.

Military analysts say that Moscow’s acquisition of the Iranian and North Korean missiles could provide an important boost for Russia as it is stepping up its attacks and trying to overwhelm Ukraine’s antimissile defenses.

“The strikes that Russia has executed in recent days demonstrate the importance to the Russians of having a large supply of ballistic missiles,” said Frederick Kagan, director of the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute, a Washington think tank.

Russia has been looking for ways to overcome Ukrainian air defenses by increasing the number of missiles launched, and adjusting the types of weapons it is using, according to Kagan. “Having enough ballistic missiles in their arsenal is a very important part of that,” he added.

Russia has already acquired a large number of drones from Iran to attack Ukraine. Moscow and Tehran have also been building a new factory in Russia that could make thousands of drones for the conflict, U.S. officials have said.

Russia’s outreach to Iran and North Korea represents a shift from its posture in past years when it cooperated with the U.S. and other Western powers in trying to limit the two nations’ capabilities.

The U.S. fears that Russia’s growing cooperation with Tehran will not only help Moscow’s war effort in Ukraine but also strengthen Iran’s military capabilities in the Middle East and potentially provide revenue to bolster its economy, which has been battered by Western sanctions. In November, U.S. officials said that Russia has been helping Tehran develop its satellite collection capabilities and has also been offering “unprecedented defense cooperation” on missiles, military electronics and air defense.

A U.N. Security Council resolution adopted soon after the 2015 Iran nuclear deal banned Tehran from exporting or importing some types of missiles and drones, as well as military technology that can be used to produce and operate missiles, without the approval of the council.

But that restriction formally expired in October, raising concerns among some Western officials that Tehran may now seek to turn to military sales to Russia and other nations.

With the expiration of the U.N. ban, the U.S. imposed sanctions intended to discourage Iran’s missile trade and issued a statement with 47 other nations vowing to block Iran’s sale of ballistic missiles and related technology. But Russia’s Foreign Ministry has said the U.N. restrictions on buying missile technology from Iran or providing it to Tehran no longer need to be followed.

Before its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia was a more cooperative partner with Washington. It joined the U.S., European nations and China in negotiating the 2015 nuclear deal with Tehran. It also supported tough sanctions in the U.N. Security Council on North Korea through 2017 in response to Pyongyang’s nuclear and ballistic missile activities.

“Russia was basically supportive of getting North Korea to accept all kinds of restrictions,” said Robert Einhorn, a former senior State Department official, referring to the bygone era of cooperation.

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