On May 1, Ukraine and the United States signed a long-anticipated minerals deal providing the United States with preferential rights to mineral extraction in Ukraine. The agreement creates a U.S.-controlled, jointly-managed investment fund that will receive revenues from new projects in critical minerals, oil, and natural gas. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy explains that the new deal allows “both Ukraine and the United States, which supports us in our defense, to make money in partnership” as Ukraine continues to defend itself against Russia’s full-scale invasion.
The agreement comes as the global critical minerals market remains highly competitive, with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Russia currently leading in mineral processing infrastructure and capabilities. The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that by 2030, nearly 50 percent of the market value from critical minerals refining will be concentrated in the PRC. IEA further assesses that by 2030, over 90 percent of battery-grade graphite and 77 percent of refined rare earths will originate from the PRC. In 2022, Russia was the source of 40 percent of global uranium enrichment. In 2024, approximately 35 percent of U.S. uranium imports (used for nuclear fuel) came from Russia.
Jamestown analysts have been assessing international competition and capabilities in critical minerals and rare earth elements for years. Our experts provide open-source analysis grounded in local language sources to help Americans understand their adversaries and allies in their own words and in their own terms.
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