The perpetual horizon: Armenia, Azerbaijan and prospects for peace

Marie Dumoulin

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In a speech on May 9th, Armenia’s prime minister Nikol Pashinyan hinted at the delicate status of the country’s negotiations with Azerbaijan: “Despite all the internal and external provocations […]. There will be peace.” That peace has not seemed so close since the end of the 1980s. But the spectre of a new war also looms as near as ever.

The return of Donald Trump to the US presidency saw Yerevan inject a new urgency into its bilateral discussions with Baku. In March, this led the two governments to agree on the text of a peace treaty. But, while the text incorporates some important concessions from Armenia, it does not even touch on the thorniest issues between the two countries. Baku has also introduced new conditions that mean the agreement is unlikely be signed any time soon.

It appears that Armenia and Azerbaijan are becoming increasingly involved in Middle Eastern dynamics, a development that could make an escalation between them more likely as long as the peace agreement remains unsigned

The world’s no less thorny geopolitical moment creates more risk—for Armenia and Azerbaijan, but also for the EU. It appears that the two countries are becoming increasingly involved in Middle Eastern dynamics, a development that could make an escalation between them more likely as long as the agreement remains unsigned. If the EU fails to help prevent such an escalation, the bloc’s own neighbourhood—and a region that is vital for European energy security and connectivity projects—may remain trapped in its cycle of violence; or even become another playground for proxy confrontation between external actors.

So near and yet so far

Trump likely translates into less American support for Armenia. This is due to cuts in US foreign assistance, but also because the Armenian diaspora in the US does not have strong connections with the MAGA movement. Trump has previous business dealings with Azerbaijan, and the expectation in Baku seems to be that its relations with Washington will thrive in a second Trump term. In anticipation of this, Armenia’s government tried to reach a quick agreement with Azerbaijan by accepting two of the latter’s key conditions.