Hal Brands
Of all today’s crises and conflicts, the US-China rivalry will most fundamentally remake our world. A contest between the two top powers will shape the international system and the lives of people everywhere. At best, it will be a long, tense struggle — a “New Cold War” — lasting many years. At worst, it could explode into nuclear catastrophe. For Americans, winning this competition will be the central challenge of our time.
Beijing understands the stakes. For decades, it has been working to overtake the US as Asia’s leading power. Its long-term goal, Chinese leader Xi Jinping has stated, is to make “a future where we will win the initiative and have the dominant position.” Since 2017, two different US presidents — Donald Trump and Joe Biden — have identified China as America’s foremost rival. America’s military, economy and government are being transformed by competition with Beijing. In a polarized country, anti-China policies are among the few measures that can still win broad, bipartisan support.
But are those policies effective? How is America faring in the defining fight of our time?
That was the question I asked an all-star group of experts — academics, think-tankers, former US officials and others — at a conference at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies earlier this month. Their answers will be published as a book this summer. What follows is my own take on the seven vital lessons for the new cold war.
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