President Trump’s upcoming Middle East trip, his first foreign tour since returning to the White House, is more than diplomatic theatre. It could mark a genuine geopolitical turning point that ends the war that has torn the region apart since Oct. 7, 2023.
But that would require something other than the standard Trumpian bluster: a focused action to compels the Arab states to break totally with Hamas, and then force Israel to step aside.
In short, Trump must strongarm both sides. There is no middle ground left. The default outcome, with Israel planning to intensify its Gaza war, would be a true cataclysm.
The landscape is not unpromising, because despite Trump’s penchant for bombast he has never been a warmonger. His foreign policy record is defined less by strength than by showmanship. He speaks loudly, but carries a light stick. His acceptance in recent days of a ceasefire with the Iran-backed Houthis — widely seen as a betrayal of Israeli interests — and his quiet drift toward a nuclear deal with Iran that looks increasingly similar to Obama’s, are evidence that Trump prefers deals over fights, even if problematic.
That contradiction is now at the heart of the Gaza war. Back in January, Trump pressured Netanyahu into a temporary ceasefire with Hamas. Then in February, he reversed course and gave the green light to resume military operations. But what Trump wanted was a short, sharp campaign — not the prolonged, grinding conflict Netanyahu seems ready to deliver.
Israel’s Security Cabinet approved an expansion of the war this week – but delayed it until after Trump’s trip this week to Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar. A key Netanyahu ally, ultranationalist finance minister Bezalel Smotrich, said the goal was long-term occupation of Gaza. “There will be no retreat from the territories we have conquered, not even in exchange for hostages,” he said.
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