Daniel Davis
U.S. Army Soldiers assigned to Alpha Battery, 3rd Battalion, 29th Field Artillery Regiment, 4th Infantry Division, fire a M109A6 Paladin in support of the joint training exercise Eager Lion ’19 at Training Area 1, Jordan, Aug. 27, 2019. Eager Lion is an annual, multinational training event in its ninth iteration which enables partnered nations to strengthen military relationships and exchange expertise. (U.S. Army photo by Spc. Angel Ruszkiewicz)
In Trump’s Truth Social post following his phone call with Putin last Monday, the U.S. President wrote the “tone and spirit of the conversation were excellent.” Putin also voiced guarded optimism, adding the call was, “very meaningful.” Words aside, the realities on the ground do not indicate peace is any closer today than before the call.
If Trump and Putin made optimistic comments following the phone call, there were anxious comments coming from European and Ukrainian leaders. Their angst is well placed – though not because their positions are solid or logical. Rather, it is the European and Ukrainian unwillingness to acknowledge painfully evident ground-truth realities that keeps them at odds with Trump’s views.
That is a real problem, at least for Ukraine.
Going back to April 18, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said of the two sides, “If we’re so far apart (that a deal) won’t happen, then the president is ready to move on.” That was repeated by Trump in an NBC interview on May 4 when he admitted “there may come a time” when he’ll walk away. When considering the positions of the two sides now, following the Trump/Putin call, however, that walk-away moment may be close at hand.
From the Russian side, the solution to the war is to a) continue unconditional negotiations while b) continuing to fight, and c) if their conditions can be fully met, adopt a ceasefire. The Ukrainian side, however, wants a) an unconditional ceasefire first, b) additional sanctions on Russia to “force” them to accept peace on Ukrainian terms, and c) give up no sovereign territory. Those are wholly irreconcilable positions, and in fact, one could argue they are further apart now than they were on April 18.
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