Ian Bremmer
Since the inaugurations of William Lai as Taiwan’s President in May 2024 and Donald Trump as U.S. President in January, Beijing has been on edge. Will Lai take provocative actions that demand a response? And what is Trump’s attitude toward Taiwan and its fight to remain outside China’s orbit?
The answers have proved complicated. In the early days of his presidency, Lai carefully avoided riling Beijing unnecessarily. The strength of Taiwan’s economy last year appeared to relieve him of any political need to rally his nationalist base with fist-shaking actions or rhetoric toward the mainland. But his Democratic Progressive Party lacks a parliamentary majority, and he can’t be sure the Trump Administration has his back. Whatever his political intent, Lai has become more strident on cross-Taiwan Strait questions in recent weeks.
On March 13, Lai delivered a speech in which he proposed 17 steps Taiwan should take to counter threats posed by China and its bid to infiltrate his government and Taiwanese society. Predictably, Beijing one-upped him, with 18 pieces of official commentary via state media that attacked Lai and his plans. Two weeks later, he was denounced as a “danger maker” and China’s People’s Liberation Army released propaganda videos simulating a blockade of the self-ruled island. If that was too subtle, China’s navy conducted joint exercises around Taiwan on April 1 to simulate an “assault on maritime and ground targets, and a blockade on key areas and sea lanes,” according to a PLA official. The Chinese coast guard deployed vessels in a circumnavigation patrol around Taiwan.
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