Matthew Johnson
Xi Jinping’s April 30 remarks preview a fundamental shift in the Party’s upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030), signaling that national security—not growth—is now the central organizing principle of economic planning. A new “security pattern” will be directly integrated with the “development pattern,” embedding resilience, tech sovereignty, and risk mitigation into national long-term strategy.
The People’s Republic of China (PRC) is transitioning from growth-maximization to strategic endurance—pursuing survivable 4–5 percent GDP growth and concentrating state resources in high-tech sectors such as semiconductors, AI, aerospace, and energy. This pivot aims to harden the economy against systemic risks from U.S.-led decoupling and domestic vulnerabilities.
In effect, Beijing is creating a two-tier planned economy: mobilizing high-tech sectors for long-term resilience while trying to stabilize the remaining “ballast” enough to prevent stagnation and unemployment. But here lies the tension: a highly targeted sectoral approach threatens to undercut broader recovery goals.
An April 30 economic symposium chaired by People’s Republic of China (PRC) president Xi Jinping in Shanghai offers the most authoritative early insight into the Party’s priorities for the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030) (People’s Daily, May 1). The readout indicates that Beijing is preparing for a prolonged period of both external and internal pressure by embedding national security, technological self-reliance, and domestic resilience (both economic and social) into its next development blueprint. Many details are yet to be specified, but the outline aligns with pillars of Xi’s long-term vision for national modernization and rejuvenation.
These priorities are increasingly framed not as growth objectives but as strategic preconditions for enduring what Beijing sees as a multi-decade contest with the United States. For the remainder of 2025, the outlook points to policy continuity: eschewing large-scale stimulus in favor of steady implementation of existing stabilization tools, unless economic shocks escalate.
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