On the evening of June 12, Israel launched a series of major strikes against Iran. The targets included Iranian nuclear facilities, missile sites, and multiple senior military and political officials. In a televised speech, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared success. Iranian officials, meanwhile, swore revenge. Leaders across the region braced for unrest.
To better understand what Israel’s strikes might mean, Foreign Affairs senior editor Daniel Block spoke with Daniel B. Shapiro. Shapiro served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East until January—charged with, among other things, considering scenarios in which tensions between Israel and Iran escalated into all-out war and preparing U.S. options for responding. Now a Distinguished Fellow at the Atlantic Council, Shapiro has also served as U.S. Ambassador to Israel and Senior Director for the Middle East and North Africa on the National Security Council. Their conversation has been edited for length and clarity.
Just how big a deal are these attacks? How much more serious are they than were the Israeli attacks on Iran in April and October of last year?
The full extent of Israel’s strikes on Iran has not yet been revealed. But they are orders of magnitude beyond what Israel achieved in its April and October 2024 attacks. It is already clear that Israel was able to strike key nuclear sites, such as the Natanz enrichment facility, locations associated with possible weaponization research, ballistic missile launch sites, and numerous senior regime leaders and figures involved in Iran’s nuclear program. That is far more extensive than almost anyone forecast.
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