Mikael Pir-Budagyan
Russia sees the Israel–Iran war as both a strategic distraction and a dangerous gamble, boosting oil profits and diverting Western focus from Ukraine, but risking nuclear chaos and regional upheaval.
As Israel and Iran exchange missile and drone strikes, the Russian leadership is watching closely.
The Kremlin has condemned Israel’s attacks on Iran’s uranium enrichment facilities, calling them a “clear violation of the UN Charter and established principles of international law.” The war could still benefit Moscow in the short term if Iran remains intact.
However, the risks of uncontrolled escalation would benefit no one. As the war drags on, the likelihood of nuclear accidents increases, and the prospect of US intervention becomes more real, threatening to open a Pandora’s box of regional instability.
What Are the Effects of the Iran-Israel War?
The first and most traceable benefit is the immediate spike in global oil prices. Despite most of Iran’s oil going to China, Israel’s strikes on oil facilities and the prospect of Tehran blockading the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important oil chokepoints, generate sustained market uncertainties.
For Russia, any price above the G7 cap of $60 a barrel means a substantial resource increase to fund its continued military campaign in Ukraine. Earlier in May, Russia reported a record 32 percent drop in oil taxes compared to last year, and following Israel’s strikes on Iran, global oil prices jumped nearly 10 percent. While oil prices have recovered from the initial shock, some reports suggest that a prolonged conflict could lead to $90 a barrel before they decline in 2026.
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