Iran’s vaunted cyber war capability turns out to be not so vaunted afterall. It’s been the dog that didn’t—or hasn’t so far—barked in the war Israel launched against it last week.
For years, intelligence assessments have portrayed Iranian cyber capabilities as fearsome.
The U.S. intelligence community’s most recent annual threat assessment, as presented by National Intelligence chief Tulsi Gabbard to Congress in March, branded Iran’s cyber capabilities “a serious threat to U.S. networks and data” and ranked its operations alongside those of cyber heavyweights China, Russia and North Korea.
Similarly, in April 2024 the cyber analytical firm Citanex composed a portrait of Iran’s “significant and growing cyber warfare capabilities, particularly in the realm of offensive cyber operations.” The readout specifically cited the ability of Iran’s cyber warriors to carry out espionage, destructive malware attacks on infrastructure, influence operations and asymmetric warfare.
“Its capabilities are rapidly advancing, and its strategic approach to cyber warfare makes it a persistent threat,” it said, adding, “Its willingness to engage in aggressive cyber operations, coupled with its focus on asymmetric tactics, poses ongoing challenges for global cybersecurity.”
But many experts and former officials scoffed.
“Iran doesn’t have the sophisticated cyber armies that you might find in a place like Russia or China,” a former official involved in Iran talks told SpyTalk in an email. “Its efforts, while sometimes savvy and damaging, tend to be more ragtag and the work of individuals, rather than PLA-like nodes. That’s not to say they wouldn’t be able to do damage, but what they can do wouldn’t hold a candle to what we might face from a more sophisticated adversary.”
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