In 2022, GLOBSEC launched a new analytical projection product — Security Scenarios for Europe around the Russian War in Ukraine — as part of its Ukraine and Eastern Europe programme and the activities of the newly established GLOBSEC Kyiv Office. This product aims to provide indicative Scenarios of how the Russia-waged war in Ukraine will evolve over the next two consecutive years and what implications it might have for the security situation in Europe. Since then, GLOBSEC has published two editions of the product — Security Scenarios for 2022-2023 and 2024-2025.
The product has proven to be in high demand among European decision-makers, offering a variety of future options, probabilities for each Scenario, both negative and positive implications for Western partners, along with policy recommendations for all major geopolitical stakeholders in European security. The predictions from the analysis for 2022/23 and 2024/25 have been shown to be accurate and appropriate. The leading Scenario for 2024-2025, “Russian War in Ukraine, Prolonged War of Attrition”, with a probability score of 31,02%, anticipated a prolonged war beyond 2025. As analysis for 2024/25 considered security Scenario when the outcome of the US presidential elections was uncertain, the authors could not have made definite projections and consequently viewed the US factor more conditionally.
This study is a continuation of the previous work done on Scenario building in November 2022 and December 2023 with a foresight analysis of potential short- and medium-term security developments in Ukraine around the Russian war and their further implications for European and global security. In response to high demand for revised Scenario following the election of Donald Trump as President of the US, as well as a clear push for a negotiated settlement, the GLOBSEC team has developed an updated version of the Security Scenarios for 2025/26.
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