Three days into the campaign between Israel and Iran, Tehran is approaching a crossroads regarding the continuation of hostilities, a potential exit strategy, and a possible post-conflict arrangement. For now, Iran remains focused on managing the war.
However, as the campaign continues and the damage accumulates, Tehran will need to choose between maintaining the current level of confrontation, ending the fighting through a political arrangement, or escalating further—potentially by withdrawing from the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
This decision will be guided by Tehran’s assessment of the best path to preserve regime survival, its nuclear program, and its broader strategic capabilities. A critical dilemma will confront the Iranian leadership once the campaign ends:
Whether to risk the regime’s short-term stability by prolonging the confrontation—especially given the potential for direct US involvement—or to abandon domestic uranium enrichment, which the regime views as a vital “insurance policy” for its survival.
Israel, for its part, faces two main options: to continue and expand the campaign in order to consolidate operational gains—despite the likely cost in casualties and damage to the home front—or to pursue a ceasefire once it determines that its key objectives, particularly those related to Iran’s nuclear program, have been met. In either case, Israel must remain prepared for ongoing conflict to preserve its achievements and, above all, to prevent Iran from restoring its nuclear capabilities—or worse, breaking out to nuclear weapons based on the capabilities it still retains.
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