Kari A. Bingen and Clayton Swope
Looking at the strategic chessboard, it’s clear why the president seized this moment to strike at Iran’s nuclear program. There may never have been a better time. Iran was closer than ever before to having the ability to manufacture an atomic bomb. In the run-up to Operation Midnight Hammer, Iran walked away from the negotiating table, signaling it was not interested in diplomacy. And,
finally, Iran was suddenly weak, its air defenses in shambles. It is too early to know the long-term ramifications of the U.S. decision to join Israel’s attack on Iran, but the short-term impacts are clear. Iran’s nuclear program has been set back, and the prestige and influence of the axis of resistance have ebbed. Operation Midnight Hammer is also a reminder of U.S. resolve and military power—and the consequences for those who underestimate either.
For years, Tehran has been constructing clandestine nuclear facilities in deeper, more expansive underground tunnel complexes. In May 2025, the International Atomic Energy Agency assessed that Iran’s stockpile of near-weapons-grade uranium had increased by 50 percent since its last report three months prior, citing the rapid accumulation of highly enriched uranium of “serious concern,” and placing Iran within short reach of a breakout capability. In testimony this month before Congress,
the commander of the U.S. Central Command wrote that Iran possessed enough enriched uranium—well past the enrichment level required for peaceful, civilian purposes—for 10 nuclear weapons and could produce enough weapons-grade material for one bomb within a week. Although Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei probably had not decided to build a nuclear weapon, pressure was likely increasing on him to do so, particularly after the start of Israeli strikes on June 12.
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