Ferial Ara Saeed
The Red Cell series is published in collaboration with the Stimson Center. Drawing upon the legacy of the CIA’s Red Cell—established following the September 11 attacks to avoid similar analytic failures in the future—the project works to challenge assumptions,
misperceptions, and groupthink with a view to encouraging alternative approaches to America’s foreign and national security policy challenges. For more information about the Stimson Center’s Red Cell Project, see here.
In 2029, the world’s most advanced artificial intelligence (AI) data center will probably be in Abu Dhabi, not Silicon Valley. President Donald Trump is building the backbone of American AI dominance far from home, in a bold gambit with profound geo-strategic consequences and risks.
Data centers are critical in the race for AI dominance. Like factories, they bring together semiconductors (the parts), software (the plans), and experts (the engineers) to build and run AI systems. The United States cannot build data centers fast enough at home owing to resource, regulatory, and political constraints. Overcoming these bottlenecks requires time, money, and political commitment, with no guarantee of success.
Meanwhile, China could catch up with its all-out state-backed infrastructure push. Trump has thus opted to scale US-anchored data centers abroad, namely in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia. To clear the way, the administration had to rescind Biden-era controls on AI chip exports, marking a decisive turn in US strategy from containment to strategic diffusion.
Details of these chips-for-infrastructure agreements are still emerging, but the terms are already clear. According to the White House, the Emiratis and Saudis will fund data centers at home and in the United States in exchange for advanced chips. American chipmaker Nvidia will supply about a million AI chips in total, mainly to the UAE,
with 80 percent earmarked for US partners, according to SemiAnalysis, an independent research firm specializing in the AI industry. The US partners—including OpenAI, Amazon, and Microsoft—will develop the data centers with the UAE’s G42 and Saudi Arabia’s Humain.
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