Scott Singer and Matt Sheehan
The release of DeepSeek-R1 in early 2025 transformed the global artificial intelligence (AI) landscape overnight, with the model demonstrating capabilities that placed Chinese models squarely at the global frontier. Seemingly surprised by their developers’ success, China’s leaders have responded with a newly found confidence. They have invited leading AI pioneers to high-level Chinese Communist Party (CCP) meetings.
1 encouraged local governments to accelerate AI deployment across critical infrastructure,2 and promised to create and improve China’s AI laws and policies.3 This shift represents a substantial departure from China’s self-perception in the period immediately following ChatGPT’s November 2022 release. At that time, China prioritized economic stimulus and regulatory flexibility to help Chinese companies catch up to the cutting-edge systems produced by U.S. companies, such as OpenAI and Anthropic.
China’s recent policy evolution reflects a fundamental pattern in the CCP’s strategic thinking: when China perceives itself as technologically vulnerable, it leverages technology as an engine for economic growth; when it feels strong, it reasserts control through heavy-handed ideological measures. These competing imperatives of control and growth have shaped Chinese AI policy since top leadership began paying close attention to AI in 2017, evolving cyclically with China’s self-perception of its relative technological capabilities and economic position.
DeepSeek’s rise has placed this cycle at an inflection point: while China’s leaders have regained confidence in the country’s AI capabilities, China’s lackluster economy threatens the financial foundation for continued success. It marks the first time since 2017 that the main factors driving Chinese policymaking—its technological confidence and broader economic growth—have moved in opposite directions. This unfamiliar situation will test the leadership in new ways and make it harder than ever for observers—inside and outside of China—to anticipate Beijing’s moves.
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