Decoding Xi’s China: The Return of Pekingology

Stefan Messingschlager

Source Link

When former Chinese President Hu Jintao was abruptly escorted off the stage at the Communist Party Congress in October 2022, global speculation erupted. Was the elderly Hu genuinely unwell, or was President Xi Jinping publicly asserting dominance? Some months later, Foreign Minister Qin Gang mysteriously vanished, triggering intense speculation until his quiet replacement. These episodes illuminate a troubling paradox: despite unprecedented access to information, the inner workings of China’s political elite remain strikingly opaque. Under Xi’s increasingly secretive rule, Western analysts have thus revived the Cold War-era discipline of “Pekingology” – the meticulous decoding of subtle signals from Beijing’s corridors of power.

Reading the tea leaves

During the Cold War era, Western Pekingology was essential for deciphering China’s carefully guarded politics. Without direct sources, experts parsed cryptic statements published in the People’s Daily, analysed official photographs, and scrutinised seating arrangements at major events to detect shifts within the Communist Party’s inner circles. At times, this meticulous approach yielded prescient insights – famously predicting the Sino-Soviet split and internal power struggles during the Cultural Revolution. With Deng Xiaoping’s economic reforms and cautious political opening during the 1970s and 80s, the necessity of interpretive guesswork gradually diminished.

Xi’s fortress of secrecy

Under Xi Jinping, however, despite an unprecedented abundance of public information, the opacity surrounding China’s highest political leadership has intensified sharply. Since assuming power in 2012, Xi has systematically dismantled the incremental openness that characterised preceding decades, consolidating power and tightening control over information channels. Independent voices have been silenced, prominent journalists expelled, and civil society increasingly constrained. A stringent anti-espionage law introduced in 2023 places even routine exchanges with foreigners under suspicion, transforming China’s political core into a virtual fortress of secrecy.