Daniel Fu
The People’s Liberation Army increasingly emphasizes blockade scenarios in its exercises and drills, signaling a strategic shift in Beijing’s approach to a military contingency in the Taiwan Strait.
Policy elites and current and former military officials corroborate this shift but largely project any military action as unlikely before 2027, citing economic challenges and geopolitical risks.
Going forward, Beijing will act to normalize blockade tactics around Taiwan and bolster salami-slicing tactics, thus advancing coercive capabilities on a longer timeline.
Recent military exercises and drills conducted by the People’s Liberation Army around Taiwan have emphasized blockade scenarios, indicating a growing preference for a military blockade over direct invasion (Observer, April 3). Commentary and writings by Chinese academics, think-tank scholars, and current and former military officials reflect this shift. Where these writers discuss potential a timeline for such actions, they appear to extend far beyond 2027, often citing the PRC’s current economic woes and potential blowback from retaliatory sanctions as reasons to prolong any Taiwan timeline.
Drills and Commentary Focus on Blockade Scenario
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