Timothy Millar
A new and sophisticated phase of aerial warfare has emerged from the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East over the past month, defined by the systematic use of massed drone saturation attacks. This evolving doctrine, refined by Russia and Iran, uses quantity and simultaneity to overwhelm even the most advanced air-defence systems.
The core of the tactic lies not in the technological superiority of any single weapon but in the brutal economic and operational logic of drone-based attrition. By doing so, it forces reassessment of how modern militaries can protect their airspace, infrastructure and military assets.
The war in Ukraine has been the main laboratory for the development of these tactics. Early in the conflict, Russia launched small waves of Iranian-designed Shahed 136 strike drones, small propeller-driven aeroplanes that can carry their warheads at least 1,300 kilometres. As the conflict has progressed, Russia’s tactics have grown in scale and complexity. The trend reached a new high during nights of the past month, when Russia repeatedly launched massive assaults with 300 or even 400 propeller-driven strike drones alongside conventional jet and rocket-propelled missiles.
While Ukrainian forces remarkably neutralised hundreds of the incoming drones, at times roughly 20 percent have managed to get through. On the night of 16 and 17 June, 30 targets in Kyiv were hit. The defences could not handle the full volume of munitions flying in.
Russia’s barrages were not an anomaly but the result of a highly effective and ongoing industrial scaling strategy. A production facility in Russia’s Alabuga special economic zone, set up with Iranian assistance, is intended to make thousands of Shahed drones a year. With more of the munitions pouring out of factory gates, Russia can mass ever larger groups of them in single strikes.
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