Camille Grand, Jana Kobzova, Nicu Popescu
Whether or not there is a ceasefire in Ukraine this year, Europeans, together with the Ukrainians, should begin—now—to draw up a “beyond the horizon” plan for Ukraine in readiness for a ceasefire or a peace deal.
Even if fighting stops, there is no doubt Russia will continue to undermine Ukraine, with knock-on impacts throughout Europe. The risk of a future Russian-Ukrainian war will remain substantial for years, possibly decades.
Protecting Ukraine’s security and enhancing its defence, European integration and domestic stability are in the interests of both Europeans and Ukrainians. Europe is safer with a sovereign and prosperous Ukraine than if the country is controlled or endlessly destabilised by Russia.
The EU and European states must plan ahead to assure Ukraine’s internal security, and help its democracy to flourish, Ukrainians to return home and the economy to bounce back.
Without such a plan, Ukraine will endlessly preoccupy Europe’s politics and economics. But with such a plan, Europeans can help transform it into an anchor of stability.
A tale of two scenarios
It is 2030. Ukrainians’ valiant resistance failed to expel Russia fully from their territory. Instead, they have carved out the next-best outcome: the front line is mostly stable, despite the absence of NATO membership (as was the case for West Germany) or any final peace agreement (as is still the case for South Korea). But this situation allows the rest of the country to rebuild, recover and prosper.
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