László Csicsmann & Scott N. Romaniuk
On June 22, at dawn, the worst-case scenario unfolded from the perspective of the Iranian leadership: the United States, in support of Israel, deployed heavy bombers against Iran’s underground nuclear facilities in Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan—targets that, according to US statements, were destroyed.
Iran now stands against not just Israel, with its unmistakable edge in military and intelligence capabilities, but also against the direct involvement of a global superpower. Tensions between Washington and Tehran were already elevated following the 2020 assassination of Qasem Soleimani—commander of the Quds Force,
the elite clandestine branch of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) responsible for foreign operations and widely considered Iran’s second most powerful figure. At that time, Iran responded with a limited missile attack on US military bases in Iraq, but the conflict quickly de-escalated by February 2020.
However, the current crisis differs markedly from the 2019–2020 US–Iran standoff. This time, the survival of the Iranian regime appears to be in jeopardy. This analysis aims to examine the key questions and strategic choices facing Iran’s leadership in this critical moment. According to the author,
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei must now balance two interdependent priorities: preserving domestic stability and crafting a credible response to the attack.
Maintaining Political Stability and Avoiding a Power Vacuum
The Iranian leadership is justifiably concerned about the possibility that armed domestic groups, with foreign support, could organize a rebellion within the country and that Washington and Tel Aviv may ultimately seek to target and eliminate Iran’s political leadership.
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