MAJ Robert Rose
In BriefNATO can credibly deter Russia using existing capabilities—if it establishes an appropriate operating concept to counter how Russia would approach a conflict.
The Baltic States are the most likely flashpoint between NATO and Russia. Russia would only gamble on a conflict with them if it could achieve strategic surprise.
Russia would seek to exploit surprise for a swift termination of the war by rapidly seizing terrain in the Baltic and then transitioning to defense-in-depth that would test NATO’s willpower and force a fait accompli.
The Baltic Defense Line provides the initial means to deny a fait accompli, but NATO must support it with units ready to parry a surprise attack and rapidly counterattack to decisively defeat Russian forces before they can solidify any gains.
On 24 February 2022, Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. While international attention was focused on the debacle of Russia’s stalled columns north of Kyiv, in just 48 hours,
Russia penetrated deep into southern Ukraine and crossed the Dnieper River. By 27 February, Russia had seized Mykolaiv, and by 2 March,
it had eliminated resistance in Kherson. Within three weeks, Russia had occupied territory equivalent to the entire area of Estonia and Latvia.
Russia revealed that the infamous 2016 RAND wargames on a Russian invasion of the Baltic, which predicted that their forces could reach Tallinn or Riga in 60 hours,
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