Joshua Yaphe
The US strikes on Iran achieved short-term strategic success but left behind a fragile, unresolved situation, risking long-term instability, uncertain regime fallout, and an unclear path forward for US policy.
The Trump Administration has maneuvered to achieve a stunning success in reasserting peace through strength while reassuring the American public that it will maintain an America First vision.
In the process, the United States has sent a signal to China and Russia that it will act swiftly, decisively, and unilaterally to achieve limited and accomplishable objectives. Even Israel has reached its strategic goal of assuming control over regional security dynamics without having to manage the chaotic fallout of regime change in Tehran.
However, everyone is now stuck with the problem of what to do with an aging and brutal regime in Iran that will cling to power by any means necessary.
How Has Israel Changed the Iranian Regime?
The Israeli operations against Iran may have been inconclusive in terms of determining the future of the Islamic Republic. Still, they have established a new set of red lines, and the region can no longer return to the status quo that existed before October 7, 2023. By acting swiftly and decisively, without lengthy consultations with international partners, Israel and the United States have signaled that they can and will bomb Iran whenever the Islamic Republic poses an imminent threat.
Moreover, it is Jerusalem and Washington that will determine what “imminent threat” means, and if Iran retaliates, it can expect an overwhelming response.
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