Garo Paylan
In an unexpected turn of events, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev met in Abu Dhabi on Thursday, ending months of stalemate in diplomatic negotiations and reaffirming their mutual commitment to securing a final peace agreement that could end three decades of hostility.
Behind the scenes, the U.S. President Donald Trump administration has been nudging the two sides for a peace accord that would give Trump a White House photo-op with the two leaders—and another opportunity to argue that he indeed deserves the Nobel Peace Prize. At a recent White House meeting,
Secretary of State Marco Rubio mentioned the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process as a priority for the Trump administration, likening it to U.S.-brokered peace efforts between India and Pakistan and Rwanda and Democratic Republic of Congo.
Despite this indication of good intent, the two sides are still far from a comprehensive peace treaty. After five hours of negotiations, they agreed to continue bilateral negotiations and confidence building measures between the two countries. To move the process forward, President Trump could engage in planned phone calls with both leaders, possibly inviting them to the White House.
Even though Washington has been consistent in its support for peace talks in the South Caucasus over the past few years, the Trump administration also has a chance to bring other players on board. Both Türkiye and Azerbaijan have seemed more interested in forging a deal under the Trump administration. Türkiye now seems on board:
During recent bilateral meetings, Aliyev and Pashinyan have both heard from Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan that it was time to put the past behind and move toward a regional order.
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