When Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia, predicted in January that it will take at least 15 to 20 years before we have a “useful” quantum computer, his comments caused a stir. The value of quantum computing stocks sharply fell, and quantum computing companies were quick to rebut his remarks, pointing to a small commercial base that is paying to solve some optimization problems now. However, many hold Huang’s belief that current quantum computers are a long way from surpassing current computers in applications like simulating complex chemical reactions, cracking encryption, or enhancing machine learning. Further, Huang’s assessment conflicts with assertions that quantum computing is on the verge of a “moonshot” moment. Is a giant leap forward in quantum computing ahead of us?
There are many efforts underway that channel this enthusiasm about a quantum moonshot. The National Quantum Initiative Act (NQI Act) was passed in 2018. Since then, the U.S. government has been monitoring progress in quantum science closely while developing policies to accelerate development in key areas like computing; however, not only is it premature to launch a national quantum computing push on par with the Apollo program, but the United States must balance investments in quantum computing hardware development with other areas of quantum science. The computers that we are most familiar with, classical computers, underwent decades of development to become reliable, fast,
and small. Quantum computers face even tougher engineering hurdles to do the same. Additionally, there are currently many competing approaches to building a quantum computer, but none of them have a clear path to becoming reliable, fast, and small enough to tackle the tough problems that classical computers truly cannot touch. While progress is being made on reliability and speed, to launch a moonshot effort, at least one approach, preferably two or three, must have a viable path to overcome the engineering challenges required to scale up to the level required to tackle the much-hyped applications.
As this is sorted out, the U.S. government should boost efforts in academia and industry to expand the quantum workforce. The U.S. Congress recently proposed a bill to amend the NQI Act to strengthen public-private cooperation in quantum science. This is welcome for those already in the field, but traditional educational paths are not currently meeting the demand for quantum experts or quantum-informed managers and policymakers, which hinders long-term progress. Quantum science programs must evolve to be cross-disciplinary, and new pathways must be established to cross-train mid-career scientists, engineers, and computer scientists.
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