Alex Vatanka,
The 12-day war between Iran, Israel, and the United States has ended, but the dust has not yet settled. Many official voices in Tehran are warning that the war can resume at any moment. Iran now faces deepening economic turmoil,
political uncertainty, and hard choices about its nuclear future. The central question is whether the Islamic Republic will emerge stronger through nationalist mobilization or weaker, exposed by vulnerabilities it long sought to deny. No doubt, Iran’s leaders stand at a true crossroads. Beyond a video message,
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s continued absence from public view raises doubts about his ability to dictate policy, particularly as Israeli threats linger. This possible gap in authority could open space for pragmatic voices within the regime, but such a shift is far from certain.
Israeli strikes and subsequent U.S. bombings on June 22 focused overwhelmingly on Iran’s nuclear sites and ballistic missile program. On the 11th day of the war, Israel did hit elements of the regime’s coercive apparatus—the headquarters of the Basij (which includes anti-riot forces), Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps security units,
law enforcement intelligence, and even the notorious Evin prison—but these attacks came late and almost as an afterthought. By prioritizing nuclear and missile targets over the regime’s machinery of domestic control, Israel signaled that toppling the Islamic Republic through popular uprising was not its core objective, nor is there any evidence that Israel has such a policy option given the magnitude of what regime change in Tehran would require. Still, these late strikes served as a stark warning to Iran’s leaders of what could await them if the war continued.
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