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1 July 2025

Would Beijing Welcome Escalation in the Middle East?

Deng Yuwen, 

Damage in a residential building in the Saadat Abad neighborhood of Tehran on June 26, following the Israeli attack on Iran.Damage in a residential building in the Saadat Abad neighborhood of Tehran on June 26, following the Israeli attack on Iran. Majid Saeedi/Getty Images

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June 26, 2025, 11:12 AM

Beijing is trying to work out its position following the U.S. attack on Iran and the resulting, if tenuous, cease-fire between Israel and Iran. A longer conflict will inevitably spill over and might even drag in major powers beyond the United States. So how does the conflict affect China’s interests? Would Beijing prefer to see it escalate further, or, as its official statements suggest, does it truly want tensions to cool down and a cease-fire to take hold?



Answering this requires a two-pronged analysis, one that considers both China’s Middle East strategy and its broader strategic rivalry with the United States.

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