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22 August 2025

China's growing nuclear arsenal

David Lague

HONG KONG, Aug 20 (Reuters) - Alongside a massive build-up in conventional military firepower, China has embarked on a rapid and sustained increase in the size and capability of its nuclear forces, according to the U.S. military and arms control experts.

The commander of the U.S. Strategic Command, General Anthony Cotton, told Congress in March that the directive from Chinese leader Xi Jinping that China’s military be ready to seize Taiwan by 2027 was driving a build-up of nuclear weapons that could be launched from land, air and sea.

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In its 2023 national defense policy, China renewed its longstanding pledge that it would not be the first to use nuclear weapons under any circumstances. The so-called “no first use” policy also includes a promise that China will not use or threaten to use nuclear weapons against a non-nuclear armed state.

In response to questions, the defense ministry in Beijing said “a nuclear war cannot be won and must not be waged.” China, it said, adhered to a “nuclear strategy of self-defense and pursues a no-first-use policy.”

[Read the special report on Japan and South Korea's shifting nuclear policies.]

In its annual report on Chinese military power, the Pentagon said despite China’s public stance, its strategy probably includes a possible first use in response to conventional attacks that threaten the viability of its nuclear forces, command and control or that approximates the effect of a nuclear strike. Beijing would also probably consider nuclear first use if a conventional military defeat in Taiwan “gravely threatened” the Communist regime’s survival, the Pentagon said in the report published late last year.

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