Patrick Cronin
Washington must regain its strategic focus. The Trump administration’s penchant for disruptive policymaking conveys ad hockery rather than deliberate strategy. Worse, strategic incoherence risks crippling the US’s ability to meet the twin geopolitical imperatives posed by an increasingly assertive and innovative China: deterring aggression and winning the race for technological dominance.
Forthcoming strategy documents may restore some clarity to US declaratory policy, but they must go further, linking concrete aims—such as securing technological primacy and preventing conflict, especially a hostile takeover of Taiwan—to realistic ways and means. Success will depend on Washington’s ability to integrate economic and security objectives into a coherent whole. Equally essential is for the Trump administration to accept that victory is impossible without trusted allies, and for those allies to commit greater resources and unite behind a shared plan of action.
Both aims fit within the longstanding strategy of preventing adversarial hegemony over Eurasia. Allowing China to dominate land and sea would threaten the US; allowing it to control AI, quantum, biotechnology and other critical technologies would be equally unacceptable. Yet this strategy leaves room for China to prosper in peace, so long as it does not achieve a decisive advantage.
The most dangerous moments will come when China believes it holds an unassailable upper hand, or the US concludes it has only one last chance to avert catastrophic decline. The first imperative, deterring conflict, demands urgent action. President Xi Jinping’s approach to Taiwan and other core interests suggests that if gradual power accumulation fails to deliver, China may seek a decisive military advantage through rapid escalation. This risk requires credible, forward-looking military investments to dissuade aggression and prevent miscalculation.
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