David Petraeus and Clara Kaluderovic
The debate in Washington over America’s posture toward Russia, however it is resolved, often overlooks a vital strategic dimension of the war in Ukraine: its role as a laboratory for America’s foremost global competitor, the People’s Republic of China. While Washington sees Russia, a legacy foe, battling in Ukraine, Beijing sees an invaluable opportunity to observe and learn from a high-intensity war fought with the kinds of weapons that will dominate future conflicts.
By serving as the essential economic and industrial enabler for Russia, China has gained a unique vantage point. It can assess how the components of military systems it is providing in huge numbers perform in combat, gather intelligence on the effectiveness of Ukrainian and Western weapons, and refine the concepts it will use to guide its own weapons development, military training, and organizational structures. All of these efforts will serve to ready the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) should it one day engage in a conflict with the United States.
Beijing’s role has evolved far beyond mere economic support; it now functions as the logistical backbone of Russia’s military-industrial complex. This arrangement allows China to test its industrial capacity to support a partner in a sustained, high-intensity conflict—and to understand the implications for supporting its own forces in combat—all while maintaining a veneer of plausible deniability. This strategic priority was laid bare in a July 2025 discussion where, according to an official briefed on the talks, Foreign Minister Wang Yi told a top EU diplomat that Beijing could not accept a Russian defeat, as it would risk allowing the United States to turn its full attention to China.
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