Eldar Mamedov
Can Pakistan parlay its temporary diplomatic success with Trump into a fundamental reset with Washington?
For years, including during Donald Trump’s first term, India sat comfortably in Washington’s good graces. Boasting the world’s largest population as well as a growing middle class, India had endeared itself to the world’s developed economies. Military strategists promoted India’s role as a “net security provider” in the Indo-Pacific region, highlighting its importance as a nuclear-armed bulwark against China.
Pakistan, on the other hand, was not so lucky. As the world’s only Islamic nation to possess nuclear weapons, its image suffered following September 11, 2001. Its support for the Taliban resurgence next door in Afghanistan didn’t help. “Being a friend to Pakistan is a lonely job in this town,” would quip the rare DC foreign policy hand sympathetic to a more balanced South Asia policy.
These attitudes easily carried into the second Trump administration. However, when the President unexpectedly praised Pakistan for counter-terrorism cooperation during his first joint address to Congress, the script began to flip. Pakistan suddenly gained new advocates in Washington.
That alone didn’t shift the balance but did set the stage for Trump’s penchant for personality politics to play an outsize role. When Indian prime minister Narendra Modi launched an attack on Pakistan in May in response to a terrorist attack in Kashmir, which the Indian government alleged was backed by Pakistan, he intended to demonstrate Indian military superiority. However, the gamble partially backfired when Pakistan downed an unclear number of Indian fighter jets in the ensuing dogfights before agreeing to a ceasefire.
However, Modi’s reaction to the end of hostilities seemed to anger Trump: the war had lasted only four days, at least in part, because Trump intervened and urged the parties to de-escalate. Despite its newfound bravado, Pakistan had no interest in entering into a protracted conflict, so it happily took the exit ramp and heaped praise on Trump, adding a Nobel Peace Prize nomination to boot. Trump basked in the glory, while India denied that he had even played a role in peacemaking.
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