Ryan Maness
On July 15, President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. would be sending more weapons to Ukraine, primarily the air defense Patriot missile systems, via purchases from NATO allies. He then gave Moscow 50 days to agree to a peace deal to end its invasion of Ukraine, or else face 100 percent secondary tariffs on countries that buy Russian products, primarily its oil. This could slow the funding of Putin’s war machine for a time, but would it be enough to get the Kremlin to seriously negotiate a long-term ceasefire that would end years of carnage?
Putin has already lost the war in Ukraine. Even as his depleted military slowly inches westward in its unimpressive summer offensive, the casualty rate of Russian troops has reached the staggering one million mark in just over three years. It is estimated that one-fourth of these casualties are battle deaths. In June, his air power was seriously depleted, losing over 40 high value planes, by a surprise and ingenious drone attack by the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), dubbed Operation Spider’s Web. Much of his Black Sea Fleet has had to depart Crimea due to the ability of Ukraine’s special operations forces (SSO) to strike his naval vessels with surface or underwater drones. The list goes on, but the once feared Russian military machine has proven to be overhyped and overrated. Failed reform attempts, corruption, and the nature of Putin’s authoritarian state have returned limited gains compared to massive losses and a stalemated war with a much smaller and less powerful neighbor.
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