Nigel Gould-Davies
United States President Donald Trump’s meetings with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and European leaders on 18 June 2025 confounded fears of failure or worse. There was no dust-up, no early departure and no crisis. The conversations were cordial, even lively. Trump was far more relaxed than he had been with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska three days earlier, where he had radiated expectant, and then disappointed, anxiety.
Atmospherics always matter. For Trump, more than most leaders, the personal is the geopolitical. But what matters far more are the underlying positions of the key actors. Policies and resources, not handshakes and humour, will shape the outcome of Russia’s war in Ukraine. After the diplomacy of the past few days, peace looks more remote than ever.
Diplomatic outcomesThree defining facts have emerged from a hectic week of diplomacy. Firstly, Trump has definitively abandoned his repeated demands on Russia for an immediate ceasefire. He has also ruled out further sanctions. These amount to further concessions to Russia. He has accepted Putin’s argument that the war can only end when a comprehensive settlement has been agreed. And he has discarded the only weapon he had argued could pressure Putin to compromise.
Secondly, Putin’s position, unlike Trump’s, remains firm and consistent. He has not moderated his position in any significant way. This is why the Alaska summit ended in half the time scheduled for it. As before, Putin insists on a settlement that goes far beyond questions of territory to address the ‘root causes’ of the war. This would lead to the subordination of Ukrainian statehood and identity, and advance his long-term goal of reshaping European security on terms dictated by Russia.
Thirdly, it follows that questions of territory – the main focus of Europe’s talks with Trump – are at this stage largely irrelevant. They will matter when conditions for a genuine peace process emerge. But they are currently a distraction that risks obscuring the deeper intractability of the war. It is not to gain a tiny sliver of territory – occupied Ukraine amounts to 0.7% of Russia’s internationally recognised landmass – that Putin has mobilised a war economy and lost over a million troops. There is currently no sign he will scale back his expansive ambitions unless he concludes that continuing to pursue them may call into question the security of his regime.
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