Three decades of conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan have consumed most of their attention on both domestic initiatives and international relations. The unfolding peace process, therefore, has the potential to dramatically change political developments in the South Caucasus. Direct talks over the past two years have produced a draft peace treaty that addresses border delimitation, the disposition of refugees, and the long-contested issue of cross-border transit routes. Each incremental breakthrough reduces the likelihood of renewed large-scale hostilities and reshapes the security architecture of the entire South Caucasus.
Achieving peace remains fragile, as a few crucial challenges remain unresolved. Armenia seeks iron-clad guarantees against future aggression, while Azerbaijan insists on unfettered access to its Nakhchivan exclave and a change to parts of Armenia’s constitution that contain territorial claims “against Azerbaijan.” Domestic politics in both countries further complicate matters. Armenia’s opposition frames any concession as capitulation, whereas Azerbaijan’s leaders face pressure to capitalize fully on its 2023 military victory.
The renewed efforts since 2023 toward a genuine peace treaty have come without Russian mediation. Russia has long used the presence of its peacekeepers to cast itself as the sole guarantor of regional security and interfere in any peace process. Russia’s unprovoked full-scale invasion of Ukraine, economic isolation, and failure to prevent or mediate hostilities between Armenia and Azerbaijan in 2023 have led to Armenia seeking a full withdrawal from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and public rebukes of Russia by Azerbaijan.
Russia’s weakening influence in the South Caucasus has allowed Armenia and Azerbaijan to explore more multi-vector foreign policies and created new opportunities for bilateral engagement. Armenia has signaled plans to pursue EU membership, and Azerbaijan continues to advance infrastructure plans that would use the South Caucasus to link Central Asia and Europe. The August 8 summit at the White House with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan produced declarations of peace by both leaders, and a pledge for a U.S. presence in future regional transport routes. The summit demonstrated the commitment both countries have toward a final agreement, but the path to full peace will likely take at least one year.
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