Xi Jinping continues to dominate the Chinese Party-state system, based on an assessment of evidence from spring and summer 2025. Despite high-level purges, unusual military reshuffles, and persistent rumors of elite dissatisfaction, there is no visible indication that Xi’s personal authority has meaningfully eroded.Signs of rebalancing within the military-security apparatus add nuance to this assessment. Structural purges, which have halved the CMC’s size, likely constitute a systematic rebalancing of Xi’s patronage networks. While these actions do not yet amount to an overt power shift, they signal that the outwardly monolithic military-security apparatus Xi once relied upon is now visibly fractured and contested, even as he retains formal authority.
The possibility of fragmentation and realignment within the elite can no longer be ruled out, though no fixed timetable for such a transition exists. As Xi enters what is effectively the indefinite phase of his tenure, Party elites will increasingly maneuver around the unresolved question of succession. For now, Xi appears capable of dictating terms, but as time goes on, the system will only reduce his power to do so.Nobody knows what will happen when Xi Jinping passes from the scene. The general secretary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has spent over twelve years at the apex of the Party-state system.
This period has been transformational for the People’s Republic of China (PRC), for its place in the world, and for Xi personally. One of the most important changes has been the personalisation of the regime under Xi. But it will not last forever. It may not even last beyond the current decade. As he ages, certain questions are becoming more urgent. Is the mortality of the regime tied to the mortality of the man? Or will a successor emerge whom Xi—or the system he leads—can shepherd across the transition? Central to all of these questions is the nature of political power within the Chinese Party-state.
While studying silence from the Party centre has left a void filled by rumours, a framework for understanding where power lies in the system and how it functions can provide tentative answers. Such a framework, like the one we provide in this article, should be based on the specific characteristics of the CCP, which mix qualities germane to Leninist political parties with those that are unique products of the CCP’s evolution. Over the course of its history, control over five areas within the CCP has been key to consolidating power. These include the military and the security services—sources of hard power—alongside the nomenklatura/cadre system, the propaganda system, and the Party elites.
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