Kirill Shamiev
As Russia’s economic situation worsens and Ukrainian defences continue to hold, elite factions in Moscow are manoeuvring for position in an uncertain future. Their goal is twofold: to protect the profits and privileges gained during the war, and to deflect blame for its mounting human and financial costs. Russian President Vladimir Putin is concerned that the elite’s disunity and anxiety about the country’s future could undermine the cohesion of the Russian regime. To counteract this trend, the Kremlin has introduced unprecedented legal mechanisms for redistributing wealth under the banner of national security: from those suspected of even minimal disloyalty or Western ties, to individuals who may be less competent but demonstrably supportive of Putin. This puts the elites in a Russian-style prisoner’s dilemma, in which the safest strategy is to perform exaggerated loyalty while quietly undermining rivals to survive the conflict.
From the United States’ perspective, the challenge is to make sure these dynamics don’t become an obstacle to ending the Russia-Ukraine war. To do so, U.S. policy should continue making Russia’s government and industrial leadership feel anxious about the war’s costs and eventual settlement. Policymakers should signal that accountability for the invasion will be targeted rather than collective or indiscriminate. The war’s architects should continue to face sanctions, while elites who increasingly abstain from publicly backing the war effort should be led to expect more forgiving treatment.
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