The Big Mistake the West Is Making About Russia, China, and Iran

Anna Borshchevskaya

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Neither Russia nor China came to Iran’s rescue in June this year during the US-Israel-Iran crisis. Moscow and Beijing condemned the Israeli military campaign and targeted US airstrikes against the Iranian nuclear facilities, but did little to help Iran in any meaningful way. Many commentators concluded that the crisis highlighted the limits of the so-called “axis of upheaval” between Russia, Iran, China, and North Korea. Some went further to suggest Russia’s and China’s policies are failing in the Middle East, and that this axis falls apart when it matters.

It is undeniably true that Tehran couldn’t count on its professed strategic partners in this crisis, especially when the United States demonstrated it was willing to use force to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon. But the consensus is wrong: the Russia-Iran-China axis hasn’t fallen apart. To the contrary, these countries appear to be willing to work together even more closely now than before the 12-day war to undermine US interests.

Russia and Iran continue to expand their cooperation outside the conventional military realm. Earlier this month, Moscow’s Soyuz rocket launched an Iranian communications satellite into orbit from Russia’s Far East. This launch is not a one-off event. Three years ago, Russia launched Iran’s Khayyam satellite into orbit from Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan. Moscow, for its part, has been quietly expanding space collaboration across the Middle East in previous years, and China has been doing the same. Moreover, Russia, Iran, China, and North Korea all cooperate in space.

Space collaboration entails the sharing of surveillance, communication, and navigation. Analysts increasingly see space as the future of military operations because it enables modern warfare across multiple domains. And at a time when the West is looking to establish norms of responsible state behavior in space, its top adversaries are signaling they will challenge these efforts. The West should not write off military collaboration between its top adversaries. Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea all remain focused on building advanced drones—at a rate faster than in the West, as some experts note.