RICHARD HAASS
NEW YORK – “Ripeness is all” opined Edgar in Shakespeare’s King Lear. Everyone would do well to keep this in mind amid diplomatic efforts to end the war between Russia and Ukraine.
Rarely in history is one side able to end a war merely by imposing its will on the other. In nearly all cases, what makes a given conflict ripe for progress, even resolution, is the presence of leaders who opt for an accord over continued fighting, who are strong enough at home to maintain support for that stance, who endorse a formula involving some benefits for all, and who accept a mutually acceptable diplomatic process to achieve these aims.
Today, the obvious question about the Russia-Ukraine war is whether these elements can be identified. While US President Donald Trump has made peace a priority, it is difficult to be optimistic. Russia occupied Crimea and parts of Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region in 2014, and three and a half years of renewed fighting that commenced in February 2022 have produced little change to the map. The only peace that can be imagined will have to be negotiated, not imposed.
Diplomatic prospects are especially unripe when it comes to Russia. President Vladimir Putin is probably strong enough to sell an end to the war at home, although he would have to explain why so many lives were sacrificed for less than total victory. But he is not yet inclined to do so, because he believes he is better off without an agreement and that time is on his side. His goal is not more territory per se, but rather the end of Ukraine as an independent democratic country with close ties to the West, and he has not shown any willingness to settle for anything less. Nor is it clear that a process that Russia will accept currently exists; revealingly, the Kremlin is throwing up roadblocks to a meeting between Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
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