The Collapse of Iran’s Proxy Strategy Exposes the Limits of Asymmetric Warfare

Rufat Ahmadzada

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With the conclusion of Operation Rising Lion, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu iterated that Israel has accomplished its strategic operational goals, in particular, rolling back the Iranian threat in terms of both its nuclear weapons program and ballistic missiles. The accuracy of the conduct of the military operation by the Israeli air force, military intelligence, and Mossad, and the intense focus in the opening stage of the operation, particularly the decapitation of the Iranian military chain of command, inflicted a strategic and humiliating defeat on Iran. The Israeli air force flew more than 1,000 sorties from a distance of more than 1,500km and struck Iranian nuclear sites Natanz and Isfahan, as well as ballistic missile sites and launchers in western Iran. In doing so, the Israelis disabled the Iranian air defence systems, thereby establishing complete air superiority, including over the capital Tehran, and attacked regime power structures such as the Basij paramilitary, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Ministry of Defence, and police. Likewise, the targeted assassinations of Iran’s nuclear scientists, a vital group of people with know-how for the nuclear weapons program, were also a strategic action, eliminating or setting back Iran’s nuclear program. The US’s operation, codenamed Midnight Hammer, dealt the final blow against the nuclear program with strikes on nuclear enrichment sites Natanz, Isfahan, and the Fordow uranium enrichment site, buried deep underground. This operation essentially paved the way for a ceasefire after 12 days of confrontation.

Israel and the US’s direct confrontation with Iran marks the total collapse of Tehran’s asymmetric warfare strategy. It is timely, therefore, to analyse the concept of proxy war and the limits of proxy war strategy. More importantly, Operation Rising Lion and Midnight Hammer raise questions about Iran’s proxy war strategy and whether that strategy has been successful or has finally failed. In looking at Iranian strategy, it is thus important to examine the following questions: What is proxy warfare? Why do states use it, and why are proxy groups unreliable? What is Iran’s proxy war strategy, and why has it failed?