Lucas de Gamboa
On June 23rd, 2025, Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, met Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow. For Araghchi, the stakes were high. Just a week before, Israel launched a devastating air attack against Iran’s nuclear program and its military command. Dozens of Iranian military commanders and nuclear scientists were killed, as Israeli air and intelligence assets could strike at the very heart of the regime–– seemingly with impunity. Topping that off, just a day before Araghchi’s trip to Moscow, the U.S. military launched a decisive attack on Iran’s nuclear sites, all without any American casualties.
Against this bleak backdrop, Iran turned to its northern neighbour for help. Given Tehran’s sustained support for Russia’s war in Ukraine, Moscow’s assistance might have seemed assured. Russia, after all, had earlier pledged to provide greater military assistance to the regime. Strong statements of support notwithstanding, Araghchi left Moscow with few tangible means of Russian aid. The Kremlin was standing aside. This episode was the latest in a series of events that demonstrate the limited extent of Russian influence. During the hour of need of one of its most important partners, the Kremlin’s support was notable for its practical absence.
As such, this dynamic should serve as a sobering reminder of the broader limits of Russian. Seven years earlier, its military intervention in South Ossetia and Abkhazia had effectively blocked Georgia’s path to NATO. Then in 2014, following the Maidan Revolution, Russia annexed Crimea and backed separatists in the Donbas, forcing Kyiv to defer its European aspirations under the Minsk I and II agreements. Later, Moscow’s decisive intervention in the Syrian Civil War saved the Assad regime, enabling Russia to secure a permanent military foothold in the Middle East.
The result was a perception of strategic momentum. The Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO)––Russia’s closest equivalent to NATO––looked more cohesive, Russian influence in Central Asia deepened, and ties with China and Iran steadily advanced. Though the economy remained sluggish, it had recovered from the malaise of the 1990s. By the mid-2010s, then, Moscow’s geopolitical star seemed to be on the rise.
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